铅周报：LME交仓拖累，铅价弱稳震荡-20251222

Report Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The market slightly raised the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates as expected. After the important macro - events were settled, the market's cautious sentiment improved [3][6][7] - The LME plans to implement new position limit rules in July 2026, which has accelerated the delivery of stocks by holders, leading to a significant increase in LME inventories and dragging down the prices of lead both at home and abroad [3][6][7] - The processing fee of lead concentrate remains at a low level, and the off - season of terminal battery consumption affects the battery scrap volume. The price of waste batteries remains firm, providing cost support [3][6] - Korea Zinc plans to set up a new lead smelter in the United States, which will increase overseas supply in the medium - to - long term. There is a strike risk at Australian smelters, and its impact needs continuous attention [3][6] - In China, there are both production cuts and restarts in primary lead production. Environmental inspections in Hunan have affected local smelter operations, while some smelters in East China will restart at the end of December. Smelters in Yunnan have restarted, and the first batch of lead - zinc from the Huoshaoyun project has arrived, which is expected to contribute to continuous growth [3][6] - Environmental controls in Anhui and North China have hindered the transportation of waste batteries, causing some local smelters to cut or stop production, dragging down the operation rate of secondary lead smelters [3][6] - The boost effect of the new national standard for electric bicycles is average. Poor vehicle demand has dragged down battery demand, and some enterprises plan to reduce production. However, the demand for automobile starting batteries is in the peak season, supporting the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises [3][6][7] - Overall, affected by the change in LME position - holding system, the accelerated delivery of stocks on the LME has dragged down the lead price. However, due to environmental impacts in many places, the production cuts of secondary lead smelters have increased, and the demand remains resilient. The social inventory is maintained at a low level for the year, providing support for the lead price. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly and steadily, and continuous attention should be paid to the changes in LME inventories [3][7] Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | December 12 | December 19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17125 | 16880 | - 245 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1966 | 1984.5 | 18.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.71 | 8.51 | - 0.20 | | | SHFE Inventory | 32227 | 27875 | - 4352 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 234750 | 258625 | 23875 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 70 | 5 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures changed to PB2602. The price hit the bottom and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, the increasing LME inventory dragged down the lead prices both at home and abroad. In the second half of the week, the inventory growth slowed down, and the futures price stabilized and weakly rebounded. It finally closed at 16880 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.55%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, finally closing at 1984.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.94% [5] - In the spot market, as of December 19, the price of Southern lead in Shanghai was reported at 16925 - 16950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reported at 16905 - 16925 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract. After the Shanghai lead price hit the bottom and rebounded, holders sold their goods according to the market. Due to the end - of - year period, most holders actively cleared their inventories, resulting in less available spot goods. The inventory of refiner - delivered electrolytic lead also decreased significantly, and some quotes turned to discounts again. Downstream enterprises had mostly stocked up at low prices, and their inquiry enthusiasm weakened today, with only a few making purchases as needed [5] Industry News - As of the week ending December 19, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat compared to the previous period [8] - Recently, the first batch of lead ingots from the 600,000 - ton/year lead - zinc smelting project of Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine, EPC - contracted by China ENFI Engineering Corporation, was officially launched. This project is the world's largest oxidized ore processing production line. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 560,000 tons of zinc ingots and 110,000 tons of lead ingots [8] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the average lead price in 2026 will be slightly higher than 2,000 US dollars per ton [8]