焦煤焦炭周报：政策利好刺激，双焦大幅反弹-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly, mainly driven by policy stimulus, while the fundamentals of coking coal and coke changed little [5]. - Downstream, the terminal demand continued to slow down. Steel mills maintained coke production, adjusted the daily coke output, and the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The coke inventory was 633.73 (-1.55) million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.72 (+0.06) days [1][5]. - In the middle reaches, coking enterprises have been profitable for five consecutive weeks, but the profit shrank significantly. The main reason was the rebound of coking coal prices. The coke output was adjusted, but the shipment was not smooth, and the inventory increased significantly. The average national profit per ton of coke was 16 (month - on - month - 28) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.05% (-1.11); the daily coke output was 63.0 (-0.98) million tons, and the coke inventory was 91.1 (+3.78) million tons [1][5]. - Upstream, the mine production rebounded, and the coking coal inventory increased significantly. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9 million tons, the raw coal inventory was 478.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 272.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5 million tons [1][6]. - Overall, the output of domestic mines rebounded, the import of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the upstream inventory was at a high level. Coking enterprises were in a profitable state with acceptable output, but the downstream demand was weak. The shipment of coking enterprises slowed down, and the coke inventory in the factory increased. Both procurement and sales were weak. The downstream steel entered the off - season, the molten iron decreased month - on - month, and the demand for blast furnace raw materials was poor. In the short term, due to policy stimulus, the market expected an increase in production costs and a compression of supply, and the support for coking coal and coke was strengthened. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate and rebound in the short term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3125 | 41 | 1.33 | 838111 | 2374085 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3277 | 32 | 0.99 | 279994 | 1191178 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 777.5 | 9.5 | 1.24 | 187722 | 534905 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1126.5 | 64.5 | 6.07 | 1379629 | 697473 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1603.5 | 73.0 | 4.77 | 23737 | 36859 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Downstream: The terminal demand continued to slow down. The steel mill's coke production was maintained, the daily coke output was adjusted, and the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.93%, the same as last week and 12.55 percentage points lower than last year; the daily molten iron output was 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons from last week and 2.86 million tons from last year. The daily coke output was 46.49 (month - on - month - 0.12) million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.73% (-0.22). The coke inventory was 633.73 (-1.55) million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.72 (+0.06) days [5]. - Middle reaches: Coking enterprises have been profitable for five consecutive weeks, but the profit shrank significantly. The main reason was the rebound of coking coal prices. The coke output was adjusted, but the shipment was not smooth, and the inventory increased significantly. The average national profit per ton of coke was 16 (month - on - month - 28) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.05% (-1.11); the daily coke output was 63.0 (-0.98) million tons, and the coke inventory was 91.1 (+3.78) million tons [5]. - Upstream: The mine production rebounded, and the coking coal inventory increased significantly. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9 million tons, the raw coal inventory was 478.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 272.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5 million tons [6]. 3.3 Industry News - Multiple departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the Central Bank, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council have intensively deployed to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and list the key task list for 2026. More incremental policies will be introduced according to the situation changes next year to boost consumption, promote the investment to stop falling and stabilize, and cultivate and expand new driving forces. The scale of central budgetary investment will be appropriately increased, and major projects of the 15th Five - Year Plan that are ready will be implemented in advance. At the same time, it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve risks in key areas, rectify "involution - style" competition, and standardize the market order [8]. - On December 17, the Ministry of Finance data showed that from January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2,005.16 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, the national tax revenue was 1,648.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; the non - tax revenue was 357.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In terms of the central and local levels, the central general public budget revenue was 884.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; the local general public budget revenue at the provincial level was 1,120.52 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other departments issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for the Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal in Key Areas (2025 Edition)". Based on the current situation and potential of the coal industry and the previous benchmark and baseline levels of energy efficiency in key areas, coal consumption for coal - fired power generation and heating, coal - to - natural gas, etc. are included in the scope [8]. - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The newly started floor area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completed floor area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [8]. - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 4.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 10.7%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 16.8%, water transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway transportation investment increased by 2.7% [8]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis trend of coke, the daily output of independent coking plants, the daily output of coke in steel mills, the daily molten iron output, the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, the inventory of coke in different sectors (coking plants, steel mills, ports, etc.), the available days of coke in steel mills, the total inventory of coke, the profit per ton of coke in different regions (national, Shanxi, Hebei), the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines, the daily output of clean coal in coking coal mines, the inventory of coking coal in different sectors (mines, independent coking enterprises, steel mills, six ports) [10][11][14]