钢材周报：终端延续弱势，期价震荡走势-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal demand continues to be weak, with real estate investment declining, and new construction and construction data undergoing significant adjustments. Infrastructure investment also shows a weakening trend on a month - on - month basis. The fundamentals of the industry are average, with minor adjustments in the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products, and inventory continuing to decline. The de - stocking trend of rebar is good, while hot - rolled coils face greater inventory pressure due to adjusted apparent demand. Affected by policies, coal and coke futures have rebounded significantly, driving up the black - metal sector. Steel prices will follow the short - term rebound but remain in a volatile pattern [1][4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3125 | 41 | 1.33% | 838111 | 2374085 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3277 | 32 | 0.99% | 279994 | 1191178 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 777.5 | 9.5 | 1.24% | 187722 | 534905 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1126.5 | 64.5 | 6.07% | 1379629 | 697473 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1603.5 | 73.0 | 4.77% | 23737 | 36859 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. Steel inventory continued to decline, and there was cost support. However, the terminal market remained weak, and there was significant upward pressure. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 (+10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+30) yuan/ton [4] - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The newly started floor area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completed floor area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, investment in pipeline transportation increased by 16.8%, investment in water transportation increased by 8.9%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 2.7% [4] - In terms of the industry, last week, rebar production was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons; apparent demand was 2.09 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; factory inventory was 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons; and total inventory was 4.53 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.92 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons; factory inventory was 830,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons; social inventory was 3.07 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons; total inventory was 3.91 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons; and apparent demand was 2.98 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - Recently, multiple departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council have intensively carried out deployments to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and list key tasks for 2026. More incremental policies will be introduced according to the situation to boost consumption, stabilize investment, and cultivate new growth drivers. The scale of central budgetary investment will be appropriately increased, and major projects of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be implemented in advance. At the same time, risks in key areas will be actively and steadily resolved, "involution - style" competition will be rectified, and market order will be regulated [6] - The magazine Qiushi published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move," emphasizing that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and security and is a long - term strategic measure [6] - On December 17, Ministry of Finance data showed that from January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2.00516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, national tax revenue was 1.64814 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; non - tax revenue was 357.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In terms of central and local levels, central general public budget revenue was 884.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue at the provincial - level was 1.12052 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [6] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to China's re - implementation of export license management for steel, stating that the main purpose is to strengthen the monitoring, statistical analysis of steel product exports, and track product quality. The management complies with WTO rules and does not involve restrictions on export volume or business qualifications of enterprises [6] - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The newly started floor area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completed floor area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [6] - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year. Among them, investment in mining increased by 4.0%, investment in manufacturing increased by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries increased by 10.7%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. Among them, investment in pipeline transportation increased by 16.8%, investment in water transportation increased by 8.9%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 2.7% [6] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the trend of rebar basis, the trend of hot - rolled coil basis, the regional price difference trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the social inventory, factory inventory, and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][18][21][25][26][28][31][34][35][36]