市场多空因素交织，盘面延续宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term natural rubber market has a mix of long and short factors. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical conflict, Sino - US trade relations, weather disturbances and raw material output in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the progress of the zero - tariff policy [9][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2605 ranged from 15,030 to 15,550 yuan/ton, with a first - rising - then - falling trend and overall a slight decline. As of December 19, 2025, it closed at 15,190 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.26% for the week [6][16]. - Spot Price: As of December 19, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [21][24]. - Basis and Spread: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber contract futures price expanded slightly last week. As of December 19, 2025, the basis was - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic natural rubber price fell slightly last week, while the foreign price rose slightly [28][31]. Important Market Information - International News: European leaders plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine. The Fed's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026, with expected inflation and unemployment rate changes. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the US economic outlook, and Trump will announce the Fed chairman candidate in early January [32]. - US Economic Data: In November, US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Retail sales in October were flat, and the December PMI values declined. Core CPI and overall CPI in November were lower than expected, but the inflation report's reliability was questioned. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased [33]. - Chinese Economic Data: In November, China's industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment from January to November decreased year - on - year. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased in November. The fiscal revenue from January to November increased year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty revenue increased significantly [35]. - Automobile and Tire Data: In November, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the growth rate declined. Heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in December is about 2.3 million, with a slight increase month - on - month and a decline year - on - year [36][37]. Supply - Side Situation - Natural Rubber Production: As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia and India increased slightly [44]. - Synthetic Rubber Production: As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber output was 779,000 tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative output was 8.169 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase [47][50]. - Tire Imports: As of November 30, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 10,300 tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous month [55]. Demand - Side Situation - Tire Enterprise Operating Rates: As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 71.39%, down 0.18% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.14%, up 0.07% from last week [59]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a 2.8% year - on - year increase and a 5.1% month - on - month increase; sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a 3.4% year - on - year increase and a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a 65.38% year - on - year increase and a 6.64% month - on - month increase [63][66][72]. - Tire Output and Exports: In November 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. Exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% decrease from the previous month [75][80]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 19, 2025, the SHFE natural rubber futures inventory was 87,160 tons, an increase of 30,170 tons from last week. As of December 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a 2.6% increase; the total inventory in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a 2.08% increase [87]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas main - producing areas are in the peak supply season, with an expected increase in raw material supply. Domestic production is decreasing, but it is difficult to offset the overseas supply increase. The ongoing Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical tension supports raw material prices. In November 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, tire enterprise operating rates changed little, with slow shipment and rising inventory. In November 2025, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year but with a declining growth rate. Heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken as the weather gets colder [89]. - Inventory: Last week, the SHFE inventory increased significantly, and China's social and Qingdao total natural rubber inventories continued to rise with a significant increase in the accumulation rate [89]. 后市展望 - The macro - environment is positive, with a warm market sentiment. The supply side is supported by the Thailand - Cambodia geopolitical situation. Terminal consumption is good but has a weakening expectation. Domestic inventories are seasonally accumulating with an increasing rate. The short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [9][91]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - Viewpoint: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [10][92]. - Operation Strategy: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for now; aggressive investors can consider going long on dips. For arbitrage, focus on the positive spread opportunity of going long on the 01 contract and short on the 05 contract. For options, stay on the sidelines [10][93].