中泰期货晨会纪要-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - Trend空头: Carbonate lithium [2] - Oscillating偏空: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - Oscillating: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - Oscillating偏多: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - 偏空: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - Oscillating: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - Regulatory actions: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - Stock market: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - International central bank policies: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - Domestic policies: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - Corporate news: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - Treasury bond futures: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - Coking coal and coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - Ferroalloys: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - Lead: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - Carbonate lithium: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - Eggs: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - Apples: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - Red dates: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - Pigs: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude oil: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - Fuel oil: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - Plastic: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - Rubber: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - Synthetic rubber: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - Methanol: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - Caustic soda: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - Polyester industry chain: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - Pulp: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - Log: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - Urea: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].