去库速率放缓供应压力仍存：长江期货尿素周报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the off - season. The number of urea maintenance units has increased, and the daily output has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. Agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening, mainly for reserve purchases. The increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. Port inventory has decreased, and registered warehouse receipts have increased significantly. Urea enterprise inventory has been destocking for nearly two months, but the destocking rate has slowed down recently. Although off - season storage and exports ease the short - term supply pressure, the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price was first weak and then strong. On December 19, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1697 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a maximum of 1720 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1666 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1676 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.36% increase [2][3]. - The main urea basis weakened. On December 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 21 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from (- 42) to 27 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The urea 1 - 5 spread was first strong and then weak. On December 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was from (- 52) to (- 37) yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 57.69%, a decrease of 5.69 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 19.51 tons. Some devices in Yunnan, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some devices in Xinjiang and Yunnan resumed production. The operation of gas - made urea devices decreased significantly, and some devices still had maintenance expectations, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in urea supply [2][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continued to operate weakly. As of December 18, the tax - included price of smokeless washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 870 - 940 yuan/ton, and the closing price center of gravity was down 15 yuan/ton from the same period last week [2][14]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea producers was 5.8 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 99%. In terms of agricultural demand, it is mainly for reserve purchases. In terms of industrial demand, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer increased slightly, and the operating load rate of melamine decreased. Overall, production and sales were relatively stable [15][16]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.54 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons from the previous week. Winter storage was shipped in an orderly manner, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production starts flexibly. Production and sales in Northeast China were good, and the production start of fertilizer enterprises increased [2][20]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 60.77%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.135 tons. Some enterprises had short - term shutdowns and then resumed production, and some enterprises had production load reductions. Next week, some enterprises still have shutdown and overhaul plans, while some short - term shutdown and maintenance equipment will gradually resume production. It is expected that the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will remain above 60% and fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market increased [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 97.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 23.3 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous week. There were 10,976 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 21.952 tons, a decrease of 320 receipts from the previous week, totaling 0.64 tons [2][26]. Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]