股指会议扰动暂歇，债市或震荡运行

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Conference Disturbance Subsides, Bond Market May Oscillate" - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Research Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Stock Index: The competition for the Fed Chair has intensified. Market mainlines rotate rapidly, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market. The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. - Treasury Bonds: The cross - year funds remain loose, and the capital interest rate is at a low level. The short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened steadily in the loose capital environment, while the long - term yields still fluctuate within the oscillation range formed since November. Before the end of the year, there is no significant negative factor for the bond market, and the upward space for yields is limited. However, the current market is still dominated by trading desks, and the lack of allocation power may lead to short - term trading rhythms. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on whether there is more concentrated allocation power release or more explicit easing signals such as an increase in treasury bond trading volume at the end of the month [11]. - Economic Data: The 11 - month manufacturing PMI rebounded weakly from a low level, still below the boom - bust line. In October, CPI and PPI both rebounded year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports declined year - on - year, industrial added value and fixed - asset investment growth rates decreased, social retail growth slowed down, and new social financing decreased year - on - year [18][21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Strategy Outlook: Range oscillation [10]. - Stock Index Performance Review: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36% to 3890.45 points. All four major stock indices rose, with IC performing relatively the best [10]. - Core Viewpoints: The Fed Chair competition is intense. Market mainlines rotate fast, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market [10]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury Bond Performance Review: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22% to 112.660 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% to 108.150 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 105.970 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% to 102.490 yuan [11]. - Core Viewpoints: Cross - year funds are loose, and the capital interest rate is low. Short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened, and long - term yields fluctuate. There is no significant negative factor for the bond market before the end of the year, but the market is dominated by trading desks. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on end - of - month signals [11]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate with a slight upward trend [11]. - Strategy Outlook: Oscillatory operation [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2% from a low level, still below the boom - bust line and lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 49.4%. The rebound was driven by a pulse - like strengthening of external demand, but the rebound was weak due to the decline in the prosperity of large enterprises. The price index was positive, indicating a possible increase in PPI month - on - month. The PMI rebound was weak, with readings significantly lower than the same period in previous years, the spread of contraction pressure, and a long - term downturn [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In October 2025, the consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month; the producer price index decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The rebound was due to seasonal factors, low - base effects, and the "anti - involution" effect [21]. 3.2.3 Exports and Imports - In October 2025, China's exports were $305.35 billion, imports were $215.28 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.07 billion. The year - on - year decline in exports was due to the high - base effect of the same period last year and the weakening of seasonality, as well as the overdraft effect of pre - export [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Added Value - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%. The year - on - year growth rates of the two production data were below 5% for the first time since September 2024. The weakening of production was related to the high base after policy implementation in September 2024 and the decline in export support [28]. 3.2.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and it is estimated that in October, it decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, the second - lowest growth rate in history except for February 2020. The slowdown in fixed - asset investment was mainly due to the weakening of internal driving forces, with the growth rates of private and public investment both declining. In terms of expenditure directions, only equipment purchases maintained positive growth. The growth rates of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined [31]. 3.2.6 Social Retail - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail dropped to 2.9%, and that of above - quota retail dropped to 1.6%. Consumption maintained positive growth under the high - base environment of last year, with a slight rebound in the two - year compound growth rate compared to September. The downward pressure on the growth rate of optional consumption increased, and the contribution rate of categories related to trade - in to the growth rate of social retail turned negative for the first time since September last year. The early "Double Eleven" on some platforms drove the growth rate of essential consumption to rebound, supporting consumption performance [34]. 3.2.7 Social Financing - In October, new social financing was 0.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan. Government bonds and credit were the main drag factors. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber dropped to 6.3%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decrease by 1.2 trillion yuan year - on - year from November to December. After considering the 500 - billion - yuan government bond quota hedge, it is still expected to drag down social financing by 0.2 percentage points. The new policy - based financial tools were fully launched in October, and it is expected that the supporting financing will continue to improve, offsetting the decline in social financing to some extent [37].