华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251222

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - For成材, it is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. With a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - For铝锭, it is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, and the macro sentiment is favorable. However, the domestic off - season has arrived, the inventory trend is volatile, and high prices suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to macro guidance and mine - end news [3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog 成材 - Production Suspension Impact: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival production suspension is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different production suspension plans, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [3][4]. - Real Estate Transaction Data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Price Trend: Yesterday, it continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down [4]. - Market Outlook: It is expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 铝锭 - Macro Situation: Overseas data has further boosted the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts. In November, the US consumer price increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, with a favorable macro sentiment [3]. - Domestic Raw Material Situation: For domestic ore, the resumption of production in the north is slow, and the supply is unstable. However, the alumina plant's bauxite inventory has reached an absolute high of 54.546 million tons, and the domestic ore price is expected to decline. For imported ore, the shipment volume from Guinea is still high, and a large - scale mining project has resumed production, with shipments expected to resume from January [4]. - Downstream Processing Situation: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% last week, continuing the weak operation in the off - season. Different industries have different situations, such as the stable operation of the primary aluminum alloy industry, the significant pressure on the aluminum plate and strip industry, the weak decline of the aluminum cable industry, and the weak operation of the aluminum profile industry in the short term [4]. - Inventory Situation: On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous Monday [4]. - Market Outlook: It is expected to be in a short - term strong shock state. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5][6].