碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳，警惕情绪驱动成材，重心下移偏弱运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]