银河期货每日早盘观察-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - Investment Logic: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Investment Logic: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - Investment Logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Investment Logic: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - Investment Logic: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Logic: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - Investment Logic: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Investment Logic: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - Investment Logic: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - Trading Strategy: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - Investment Logic: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - Investment Logic: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - Investment Logic: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].