长江期货聚烯烃周报-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - Weekly Market Review: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - Key Data Tracking - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - Key Data Tracking - Spot Price: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - Key Data Tracking - Cost: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - Key Data Tracking - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - Key Data Tracking - Supply: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - Key Data Tracking - Demand: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - Key Data Tracking - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - Weekly Market Review: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - Key Data Tracking - Basis: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - Key Data Tracking - Month Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - Key Data Tracking - Cost: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - Key Data Tracking - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - Key Data Tracking - Supply: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - Key Data Tracking - Demand: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - Key Data Tracking - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].