国新国证期货早报-20251222

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - On December 19, 2025, A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.36%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.66%, and ChiNext Index up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and policy [4][5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 19, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3890.45, up 0.36%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13140.21, up 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3122.24, up 0.49%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, an increase of 70.4 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4568.18, a rise of 15.38 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 19, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1702.6, up 34.0; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1089.9 yuan, down 0.9 [2][3]. - Coke: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round price cut. The coking profit has recovered due to the decline in coal cost. Terminal steel mills' profits are under pressure, and iron - water production is decreasing. There is a slight increase in upstream mine inventory [4]. - Coking coal: Production has decreased significantly and will continue to decline before New Year's Day. Mongolian coal imports are surging, and the port inventory is close to 3.56 million tons. The downstream procurement willingness is limited [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as a large short - term decline, a rebound in US sugar, and a decline in November's import volume, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose slightly last Friday. China's sugar imports in November were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to November, imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [5]. Rubber - Affected by the increase in Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory and warehouse receipts, Shanghai rubber fell slightly last Friday. As of December 19, natural rubber inventory was 110,885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5343 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,170 tons. For 20 - grade rubber, inventory was 61,084 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons; futures warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [6]. Palm Oil - On the night of December 19, palm oil futures prices continued the weak trend during the day, with a slight low - level fluctuation. Indonesia has started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 19, CBOT soybean futures prices were weak. Brazil's soybean sowing is almost complete, with favorable weather for growth, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Argentina's sowing progress is slow, and some institutions have lowered its production forecast. - Domestically, the M2605 main contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is significant. The support of cost on price has weakened [6]. Live Hogs - On December 19, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The supply of live hogs is loose, but the demand in the southwest region is improving due to the approaching peak of curing and pickling. The price is under pressure but also supported to some extent [6]. Shanghai Copper - On December 19, the Shanghai Copper CU2602 main contract closed at 93,180 yuan/ton. Macro factors both support and pressure the price. Supply is limited, and demand has both positive and negative factors [6]. Logs - The Log 2603 main contract opened at 778.5, closed at 779, with an increase of 95 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is stable, and future price support needs to be observed [8]. Iron Ore - On December 19, the Iron Ore 2605 main contract rose 0.52% to close at 780 yuan. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On December 19, the Asphalt 2602 main contract fell 1.95% to close at 2909 yuan. Supply is increasing, demand is shrinking in the off - season, and the price is in a volatile trend [8]. Cotton - On the night of December 19, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 14405 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 251 lots. Cotton - spinning enterprises replenish inventory as needed [8]. Steel - The steel market has both supply and demand decreasing. The macro - policy is in a window period, and the demand is weak. The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate narrowly [8]. Alumina - The supply of raw materials is sufficient. Due to low prices, domestic production capacity and operation may decline slightly. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The market is in a stage of oversupply [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - The price of alumina is falling, while the price of spot aluminum is strong, and the profit of aluminum plants is expanding. Supply is stable, and demand has some resilience but may be affected by the off - season. The market is in a tight supply - demand balance [8][9].