聚烯烃周报：反季节性累库，盘面加速下行-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For plastics, the supply - demand drive is weak, and the current LLDPE weighted profit is at a low level in the same period but still has room to decline. With the end of the peak season for northern shed films and the anti - seasonal inventory accumulation, there is high pressure on destocking. High - production cycles combined with seasonal weakening of supply and demand suggest that previous short positions can be held, and some can be reduced [4]. - For PP, attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH devices. Although the weighted profit has room to decline, the marginal device PDH profit has limited room for further compression, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Given the high inventory, previous short positions can be held, and some can be closed at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastics Market Review - This week, plastics opened flat and closed lower, with three consecutive negative weekly lines. It opened at 6486 on Monday, reached a weekly high of 6619, then continued the downward trend of last week, hitting a new low of 6314 this year on Friday, and finally closed at 6320 yuan/ton (down 166 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 305 points [3][12]. Capital - As of this Friday, the main PE positions were 59.8 million lots, showing accelerated position - building [17]. Basis - As of this Friday, the main plastics spread was - 70 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the LLDPE weighted profit was - 248 yuan/ton (+59), with a significant compression in MTO - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PE production was 680,000 tons (down 0.2 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 84% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Next week, due to the shutdown of some devices for maintenance, the production is expected to be 668,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons from this week [44]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.01 million tons (down 3.4% year - on - year). In October, the import volume was 1.01 million tons (down 16% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month). The expected import volume in December is 1.16 million tons [47]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 910,000 tons (up 30% year - on - year). In October, the export volume was 80,000 tons (up 35% year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month). The expected export volume in November is 94,000 tons [50]. Demand - This week, the PE downstream capacity utilization rate was 42%, showing a four - week decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PE increased by 11% year - on - year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to November 2025 were 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous five - month decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate [63]. - The downstream agricultural film operating rate was 45% (down 1.2 pct), showing a five - week decline. The PE packaging film operating rate was 49% (down 0.6 pct), showing a four - week decline [65]. Inventory - As of this Friday, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory was 660,000 tons (up 6.5 year - on - year) [76]. - This week, the PE enterprise inventory was 490,000 tons (up 2 week - on - week and 10 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PE social inventory was 470,000 tons (up 1.2 week - on - week and 5 year - on - year). The PE commercial inventory was 990,000 tons (up 3 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. PP Market Review - This week, PP fluctuated at a low level, with a positive weekly line. It opened 9 points higher at 6178 on Monday, briefly reached a weekly low of 6165, then quickly rose and fell back, with a maximum of 6315. From Tuesday to Friday, it fluctuated narrowly around 6250, and finally closed at 6213 (up 45 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 150 points [7][15]. Capital - No relevant information provided. Basis - As of this Friday, the main PP spread was - 34 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the PP59 spread was - 27 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the PP weighted profit was - 692 yuan/ton (+96), with a significant compression in PDH and externally - purchased propylene - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PP production was 820,000 tons (up 1 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. Next week, the total PP production in China is estimated to be 810,000 tons, showing a decline from this week due to an increase in maintenance plans [53]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.73 million tons (down 9% year - on - year). In October, the PP import volume was 270,000 tons (down 12% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month) [58]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 2.58 million tons (up 27% year - on - year). In October, the PP export volume was 240,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year and down 1% month - on - month) [60]. Demand - This week, the PP downstream operating rate was 54%, ending a ten - week increase, with only BOPP showing a month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the apparent consumption of PP increased by 13.1% year - on - year. In October, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.54 million tons [68]. - This week, the plastic braiding operating rate was 44%, and the BOPP operating rate was 63%, showing an eleven - week increase [71]. Inventory - This week, the PP enterprise inventory was 540,000 tons (up 0.1 week - on - week and 11 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP trader inventory was 200,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 7 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 19 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. Production Plan - In 2025 and 2026, there are large - scale production plans for PE and PP devices, indicating that 2026 is still in a high - production cycle [40][41].