铁矿石：宏观驱动减弱，关注补库需求

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force is weakening, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations. The supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate. The short - term market focus has shifted to the real - world situation, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will be mainly in a volatile state in the short term. The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic Last week, the black - metal complex rebounded as the inventory pressure on finished products continued to ease, the valuation of the industrial chain recovered, and the strong spot price of iron ore supported the futures market. With the upcoming steel - mill restocking cycle, restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [3]. Supply The weekly shipments of foreign iron ore increased significantly compared to the previous week, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased push to increase shipments at the end of the year, and the shipping volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term, and the support from the supply side is relatively weak [3]. Demand Domestic demand has continued to decline at an accelerating pace, with the decline exceeding expectations. Based on the current production - cut intensity and restart plans, the molten iron output may be approaching its lowest level. This is mainly due to the combined effects of environmental protection - related production restrictions and annual maintenance. The average daily molten iron output this period was 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron output has been lower than that of the same period last year. High - level maintenance mainly occurred in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Anhui. In Hebei, environmental protection - related production restrictions intensified, leading to an increase in steel - mill maintenance, while in other regions, it was mainly annual maintenance. Blast - furnace restarts occurred in Liaoning, Shanxi, Fujian, and Anhui, mainly after the completion of blast - furnace maintenance as planned. The decline in molten iron output this week was mainly due to the continued impact of blast - furnace maintenance from last week. Additionally, an individual steel mill in Hebei reduced production due to environmental protection - related production restrictions, and the blast - furnace restart plan in this region was postponed, which was also the main reason for the larger - than - expected decline in molten iron output [3]. Inventory The imported iron - ore inventory at steel mills remains at a relatively low level. The steel - mill inventory this period decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock, and currently, steel mills' restocking actions are weak. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar - denominated iron ore by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Strategy Adopt range - bound trading and use covered call options [4]