HY(SH:601020) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-22 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-elasticity player in the antimony market, with expected rapid growth as multiple incremental mining projects begin to release production. The company focuses on mineral resource development, with plans both domestically and internationally. It currently operates three production mines in China and one in Ethiopia, with further projects expected to drive growth [6][8]. - Global antimony supply and demand are tightening, leading to strong antimony prices. The company’s antimony business is expected to benefit from this price strength, with domestic antimony ingot production down 15.5% year-on-year as of November 2025. The average domestic antimony price has increased by 41.29% compared to 2024 [8]. - Gold prices are on the rise, positively impacting the company's projects such as the Takin and Nibao gold mines. The Nibao project has significant gold reserves and is expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2027-2028 [8]. - The company's forecast for net profit in 2025 has been raised to 988 million yuan, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 1.214 billion and 1.683 billion yuan, respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 22, 18, and 13 [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1.614 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.191 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 85.3% in 2024 and 42.2% in 2027 [7][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly, from 253 million yuan in 2024 to 1.683 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 242.9% in 2024 and 38.7% in 2027 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 54.6% in 2024 to 59.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7].