消费短期承压，供给担忧和宏观预期共同提振盘面：铜周报20251221-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The consumption of copper is under short - term pressure, while supply concerns and macro - expectations jointly boost the copper futures market. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2602 closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 1.05% week - on - week. The overall trend of Shanghai copper this week was volatile. The over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, pressure on China's November fixed - asset investment and real estate, and accelerated contraction of the eurozone's December manufacturing PMI affected the market. Although the expectation of US interest rate cuts boosted the market, there were still disturbances in reality. The consumption was weak, and the copper spot premium dropped significantly [2]. 2. Operating Logic - Macro: US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool. The Bank of Japan emphasized prudent actions in the future. China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction [2][39][42]. - Supply: The port inventory of copper concentrates increased week - on - week but was lower year - on - year. The BM negotiation was still deadlocked. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year, with the impact of previous maintenance restored [2]. - Demand: The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year last week. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to decline, but the local price rose slightly this week [2]. - Inventory: The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate [2]. 3. Influencing Factors Analysis Price Data - The consumption was weak, and the spot premium dropped significantly. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium weakened week - on - week [11][12]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by 0.57 dollars/ton to - 43.65 dollars/ton week - on - week and remained at a low level. The port inventory of copper concentrates was 680,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week but lower year - on - year. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased week - on - week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate. The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% compared with the same period last month. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to continue to decline. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [16][19][22]. Macroeconomic Data - China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction. US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool [39][42][43]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Considering the over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, the Bank of Japan's emphasis on prudent actions in the future, weak consumption, significant decline in copper spot premium, and low year - on - year port inventory of copper concentrates, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2].