宏观金融数据日报-20251222

Report Summary 1. Market Data Overview Currency Market - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a -0.11 bp change; DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.21 bp change; GC001 at 1.48 with a 26.00 bp change; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50 bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a -0.08 bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a -1.22 bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.60 with a -1.49 bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.83 with a -0.50 bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.16 with a 4.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan. Also, 40 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase agreements and 8 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits matured, and the central bank carried out 60 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase agreements. Additionally, 10 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations were conducted on Thursday and Friday [4] - This week, 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature (130.9 billion on Monday, 135.3 billion on Tuesday, 46.8 billion on Wednesday, 88.3 billion on Thursday, 56.2 billion on Friday). Also, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Monday and 30 billion yuan of MLF on Thursday. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain market liquidity [5] Stock Index Market - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.28% to 4568.2; SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3004.3; CSI 500 remained flat at 7169.6; CSI 1000 fell 0.56% to 7329.8. Among Shenwan primary industry indices, commerce & retail (6.7%), non - bank finance (2.9%), social services (2.7%), basic chemicals (2.6%), and textile & apparel (2.2%) led the gains, while electronics (-3.3%), power equipment (-3.1%), machinery (-1.6%), comprehensive (-1.5%), and communication (-0.9%) led the losses [6] - As of the latest data, CSI 300 closed at 4568 with a 0.34% change; IF current - month contract at 4572 with a 0.5% change; SSE 50 at 3004 with a 0.19% change; IH current - month contract at 3004 with a 0.3% change; CSI 500 at 7170 with a 0.97% change; IC current - month contract at 7171 with a 1.0% change; CSI 1000 at 7330 with a 0.79% change; IM current - month contract at 7335 with a 0.8% change. IF trading volume was 138,604 (-5.1%), and open interest was 268,202 (-5.0%); IH trading volume was 62,859 (7.3%), and open interest was 84,913 (-1.4%); IC trading volume was 146,482 (0.0%), and open interest was 253,109 (-4.0%); IM trading volume was 219,389 (-2.3%), and open interest was 354,958 (-5.2%) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, stock indices are expected to continue their weak performance due to the decline in market risk appetite near the year - end, poor November economic data, and limited policy signals from recent important meetings. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and odds [7]