钢矿：潮平两岸阔，风正一帆悬

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the steel and iron ore industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the total demand for steel may remain stable, while the supply of iron ore will continue to be loose, which may lead to a downward shift in the cost - price center and affect steel prices. Attention should be paid to the seasonal and structural contradiction opportunities in the industry [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Price Trend - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - plate sector declined. After the supply of raw material varieties became more abundant, the decline was greater than that of finished products. Carbon - element and cost - priced varieties led the decline. From June to July, the "anti - involution" concept drove up the prices of coal - related products, and the sector rebounded, but the rebound was short - lived. After August, as the concept cooled down, the industry contradictions returned to a weak balance, and the sector prices oscillated until the end of the year [9] - The annual average price of iron ore in 2025 decreased compared with 2024, which is in line with the trend of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply - demand stories and macro events such as Australian cyclones, rumors of steel production control policies, the Sino - US tariff war, and the "anti - involution" policy [18][19] 1.2 Spread and Basis Review - In the spot - futures dimension, the basis fluctuation range narrowed, and the futures premium structure appeared periodically. For varieties with weak spot demand, futures premium before the delivery month would bring greater selling and delivery pressure. In terms of variety spreads, plates were more resilient than building materials, and iron - element varieties were stronger than carbon - element varieties, but the iron/carbon price ratio fluctuated greatly during the "anti - involution" trading period from June to July [24] - The monthly spread structure of weak varieties maintained a relatively stable Contango structure. The cross - month spread of iron ore tended to be flat, and the positive spread structure was weakened. The basis did not show a significant positive spread pattern, only showing periodic positive spreads in late February and April, and a periodic negative spread under the "anti - involution" situation in July [24][26] 2. Steel Demand Analysis 2.1 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the total steel demand was weakly stable, with the average apparent demand of five steel products at 852, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.7%. Downstream demand was differentiated, with building materials being the biggest drag. Real estate had a greater negative impact than infrastructure, while manufacturing and exports brought direct and indirect incremental steel demand [52] - In the real estate dimension, the sales volume and price of commercial housing continued to decline in 2025. If the real - estate - related credit cycle recovers in the first half of 2026, the year - on - year decline in new - house sales volume for the whole year may narrow from about 8% in 2025 to about 5%. The marginal negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand may weaken [56][57] - In the infrastructure dimension, infrastructure investment improved in 2025, and the policy in 2026 is expected to be more positive. However, due to the transformation of the economic structure, the incremental steel demand driven by infrastructure investment alone will be limited [62] - In the manufacturing dimension, although manufacturing offset the decline in real estate and infrastructure in 2025, there were signs of a slowdown in investment in the second half of the year. In 2026, the risk of a decline in industrial product demand due to the decline in fixed - asset investment in the first quarter needs attention, and the demand - driving effect of the manufacturing industry may slow down [68] 2.2 Exports - In 2025, China's steel exports continued to rise, with an estimated annual export volume of 115 million tons, exceeding the historical high in 2015. The high - volume exports were due to price advantages, with the average export price decreasing by 10.3% year - on - year [74] - China achieved better - than - expected steel exports in 2025 through "regional transfer + variety optimization". In the future, the steel production capacity in ASEAN may expand, which may replace some of China's export shares. The new export license system will promote the optimization of China's steel export varieties in the long - term, and the steel export volume in 2026 is expected to remain high, but the marginal increment will decline [80][88] 3. Steel Supply Analysis 3.1 Overseas Supply - From January to October 2025, the global blast - furnace pig iron production outside China decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the crude steel production increased slightly. The decrease in China's crude steel production was the main factor affecting the global decline, while the increase in India's production supported the growth of overseas production [92] - In 2026, the global steel supply is expected to increase slightly, with the increment coming from regions outside China, especially India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the regions after the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [93] 3.2 Domestic Supply - In 2025, the production profit of domestic steel mills improved, and the production enthusiasm and output increased. In 2026, the steel supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the product structure will continue to tilt towards manufacturing or industrial materials. It is expected that the steel output in 2026 will be stable or slightly decrease, with an increase in the proportion of electric - arc - furnace steel and stable pig - iron output [99][114] 4. Iron Ore Supply Analysis 4.1 Overall Supply in 2025 - In 2025, the global supply increment of iron ore basically met expectations, but there were differences in the shipment rhythm and regional structure. As of the 50th week of 2025, the global iron ore shipment increased by 45.027 million tons year - on - year [116] 4.2 Supply Outlook in 2026 - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to expand. The new production capacity of the four major mines will mainly come from Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale. Non - mainstream mines (excluding Simandou) will have an increment of about 10 million tons [116] 4.3 Four Major Mines - Vale: Multiple projects are in progress. The production target in 2026 is raised to 340 - 360 million tons, with an estimated increment of about 10 million tons [130] - Rio Tinto: The Pilbara iron ore shipment target in 2026 remains unchanged, and the equity increment of Simandou iron ore is 5 - 10 million tons. The estimated increment in 2026 (excluding Simandou) is 5 million tons [131] - BHP: The 100% equity production in fiscal year 2026 is 284 - 296 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared with fiscal year 2025 [132] - FMG: The production and sales target in fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons. The estimated supply increment in 2026 is about 6 million tons [133] 4.4 Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream mines have different production capacities, and the total new production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 40 million tons (including Simandou, excluding India) [138] 4.5 Domestic Mines - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. The potential for domestic mine production increment exists, with an estimated increment of about 6 million tons in 2026 [138] 5. Summary and Outlook 5.1 Steel - In 2026, the demand for steel may remain stable, with the demand increment in the range of - 1% - 0%. The supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the cost support will weaken, which is beneficial to the production profit of steel mills. The unilateral steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be focused on for widening opportunities [144] - The estimated operating range of rebar futures prices is [2850, 3350], and that of hot - rolled coil futures prices is [2950, 3500] [145] 5.2 Iron Ore - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to be in an oversupply situation. The demand for iron ore will remain stable or decline slightly. The price center of iron ore is expected to move down to 95 - 97 US dollars, with an operating range of [85, 110] [146]