供给压力凸显需求增长乏力，政策风险及复航时间成最大变量

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market in 2026 faces significant oversupply pressure. Demand growth is expected to slow down notably, with the restocking demands in Europe and the US diverging and having limited elasticity. Although emerging markets remain resilient, they cannot fully offset the weakness in traditional markets. The supply side will see continuous release of new capacity. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, it may exacerbate the global oversupply of shipping capacity. Coupled with the delivery pressure of large - scale vessels in 2026, the annual supply - demand gap will widen further. Policy risks are the key variables, and the ability to fulfill cargo volumes will be the core factor affecting freight rate fluctuations. Overall, the freight rate center will be under pressure in 2026, with limited upside potential during the peak season. Consider short - selling opportunities in the April and October contracts at high levels [3][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in 2025 - January 2025: The market continued the upward trend from the end - of - year peak season in 2024, but the actual cargo volume fell short of expectations. With redundant supply (a 10% increase in weekly average capacity compared to the previous month) and the rising expectation of the Red Sea route resumption, the EC2504 contract price dropped from 1722 points to 1163 points, a cumulative decline of 32.4% [7] - Around the Spring Festival in 2025: Shipping companies expanded the scope of sailings cancellations to stabilize freight rates. The market price stopped falling and stabilized. The market expected a post - festival price increase, and the EC2504 contract price stood firmly above 1300 points. After the Spring Festival, shipping companies announced a freight rate increase in March, driving the contract price from a discount to a premium and starting a unilateral upward trend [7] - After the Spring Festival - early April 2025: Despite continuous price - hike signals from shipping companies, the actual implementation was poor. It was the traditional off - season, and the cargo volume recovery was below expectations. The capacity pressure from the concentrated delivery of new ships emerged (cumulative delivery in the first three quarters exceeded 300,000 TEU). The EC main contract fluctuated widely between 1500 - 1700 points, maintaining a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [8] - April - May 2025: On April 2, the US government announced additional tariffs on China, causing a sharp drop in cargo volume on the US - West route. The capacity originally allocated to the US route was diverted to the European route, worsening the supply - demand imbalance. The EC2506 contract price fell from 1700 points to 1530 points, a 10% decline, and market panic spread [8] - Mid - May - late June 2025: The EC contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. As the Sino - US trade negotiation atmosphere improved, there was a rush of bookings on the US - West route. However, the US - line freight rate was weak, which affected the European - line market sentiment. The actual situation deviated from the market's previous expectations, pushing the EC contract price down [9] - Late June - late July 2025: The container shipping European - line futures market rose overall. The weighted index climbed from 1500 points to 1800 points. The positive sentiment in the commodity market and the tight supply - demand situation during the peak season drove the price up. The main contract smoothly transitioned from the 08 contract to the 10 contract, and the 12 contract also rose, forming a multi - contract upward pattern [10] - Late July - late September 2025: The market declined continuously. The off - season characteristics became obvious in mid - July, and the spot freight rate started to fall. The trading logic of the 10 contract shifted to be fundamentally driven. The 10 contract and far - month contracts entered a downward channel. In mid - August, the spot market decline intensified, and the 10 contract deviated from the 12 and 02 contracts. In the traditional off - season, the spot market price war emerged, and the 10 contract fell to below 1100 points. The 12 contract oscillated, and the 02 contract's price center rose slightly [11] - September - end of November 2025: Shipping companies repeatedly announced freight rate increases, but the actual implementation was weak. The EC12 contract price rose to 1960 points and then fell back to 1550 points. The rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict accelerated the discount process of far - month contracts, and the market worried more about the oversupply in 2026 [12] - December 2025: On the spot side, the PA alliance accumulated a large amount of cargo through low - price strategies in the first half of the month, and the blank sailings in the last two weeks eased the pressure. The market quotation stabilized at $2400/FEU, and the freight rate center increased by over $200 in late December. Leading shipping companies coordinated to support prices, boosting market confidence. The European seasonal stocking demand increased cargo volume, and the capacity utilization rate improved. The weekly average capacity on the European route shrank to 285,000 TEU in late December. The slow progress of the Red Sea route resumption did not add new negative factors to the supply side. The 2602 contract showed a bullish tendency, but overall, it was still a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [12][13] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Static Capacity Supply - The supply pressure in the container shipping market remains huge. After a decline from 8 million TEU to 6 million TEU from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, the total container ship orders reached a new high of 9.9 million TEU due to the Red Sea crisis. Orders are mainly for ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU, and the order volume of ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU (mostly for the European route) increased sharply from 960,000 TEU to 4 million TEU. The order volume of 12000 - 16999 TEU ships decreased, with new orders of 764,000 TEU and deliveries of 1.118 million TEU this year, while the 17000 + TEU ships had new orders of 1.841 million TEU and deliveries of 254,000 TEU [14][16] 3.2.2 Dynamic Capacity Supply - The market focuses more on short - to - medium - term capacity supply, which is affected by shipping schedules (capacity deployment), idle capacity, sailing speed, and port and canal congestion. - Capacity Deployment: The 17 routes priced in the SCFIS European line are operated by different alliances and companies. The weekly average capacity deployment on the European route in the third and fourth quarters increased by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU compared to last year, indicating sufficient supply [24] - Idle Capacity and Sailing Speed: The idle capacity is close to 780,000 TEU, at a normal level, and has little impact on freight rates. The sailing speed is slightly faster than the economic speed and has decreased compared to last year as the new ships have met the demand [27] - In - Port Capacity: The in - port capacity in European ports was relatively high in the first half of the year due to strikes but has returned to normal since late May, without seriously affecting the supply chain [33] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Tariff Issues - 2025 Performance: In April, the Trump administration introduced "reciprocal tariffs" on China, initially at 34% and later raised to 145%, causing a more than 30% decline in China's exports to the US from April to May. China counter - imposed tariffs on US imports, initially at 84% and later raised to 125%. After a trade consultation in May, the retaliatory tariffs were temporarily suspended, and a 10% base tariff plus a 20% fentanyl - specific tariff was implemented until November 2026 [39] - 2026 Outlook: High tariffs have significantly reduced demand on the US route, with the SCFI US - line freight rate down 40% year - on - year. Shipping companies have shifted capacity to other markets, intensifying the global supply - demand imbalance. China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 10% - 15%, and the export proportion of products like machinery, electronics, and new - energy vehicles has risen. The US restocking demand may be delayed until the second quarter with limited elasticity, and the EU's anti - subsidy investigations and green trade barriers will continue to pressure the market. The demand growth in the global container shipping market may slow down [48][49] 3.3.2 Red Sea Issues - 2025 Situation: A partial cease - fire agreement in the Israel - Palestine conflict in October led to CMA CGM's trial resumption of the Red Sea route, and the Suez Canal Authority promoted related negotiations and offered toll discounts. However, due to security concerns from the Houthi rebels and pirate activities, the annual resumption rate of the Red Sea route in 2025 was only 30% of the pre - pandemic level. Ship detours around the Cape of Good Hope increased the voyage by 30%, reducing effective capacity by 30% and increasing fuel costs by 40%. The SCFI European - line freight rate dropped 50% year - on - year, with limited rebound during the peak season [52][53] - 2026 Outlook: If the cease - fire in Gaza continues until the first quarter of 2026, the Red Sea route may resume in March. If the resumption is successful, the global container shipping oversupply will intensify by 30%, the weekly average capacity on the European route will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU, and the peak - season freight rate center may drop by over 30%. If the detour continues, the supply growth will slow to 5%, but the demand will still be pressured by the economic divergence in Europe and the US, and the freight rate center will face downward pressure [54][55]