Soochow Securities·2025-12-22 05:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.46%, ranking in the upper middle among all primary industries. The energy metals sector rose by 5.08%, while the precious metals sector increased by 0.68% [1][14] - Gold prices have broken through the consolidation range, while silver's bullish sentiment has peaked, indicating a potential risk of a sharp short-term correction [1][49][50] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the index by 1.44 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with energy metals leading the gains [14] Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices fluctuated with LME copper at $11,882 per ton (up 2.85%) and SHFE copper at ¥93,180 per ton (down 0.96%). Supply remains weak, with a forecasted global copper shortage of 150,000 tons by 2026. Demand is deteriorating as construction projects pause, leading to increased spot market discounts [2][30] - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose to $2,945 per ton (up 2.43%), while SHFE aluminum was at ¥22,185 per ton (up 0.07%). Supply conditions are stable, with new capacity coming online, but demand remains cautious due to a downturn in the real estate sector [3][35] - Zinc: Prices fell, with LME zinc at $3,073 per ton (down 2.12%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,065 per ton (down 2.29%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [41] - Tin: Prices increased, with LME tin at $43,227 per ton (up 5.11%) and SHFE tin at ¥343,040 per ton (up 3.02%). Supply from Indonesia has increased, but demand remains cautious [46] Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $4,368.70 per ounce (up 0.90%), while SHFE gold was at ¥979.90 per gram (up 0.95%). Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed results, but overall inflation appears to be cooling, which may influence future gold prices positively [4][49] - Silver: The report warns of extreme bullish sentiment in silver, with potential for a sharp correction as market volatility peaks [50]