集运日报：多头情绪再度回升，盘面偏强震荡，符合日报预期，已建议全部止盈。-20251222

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, and the market is oscillating strongly, which is in line with the daily report's expectation, and all positions have been advised to take profit. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1][2]. - The market is in a fierce long - short game with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SCFIS and NCFI Freight Indexes - On December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20%; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% [1]. - Also on December 19th, compared with the previous period: the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33%; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2%; the SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91%; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% [1]. PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2]. - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1]. - The US November S&P Global Services PMI flash was 55, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global Composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, expected to be 54.6, with a previous value of 54.6 [2]. Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pull - back, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been advised to go long on the main contract lightly, and all positions have been advised to take profit. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions, and stop - losses should be set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [3]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profit when it reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. - Circuit - breaker limits: The circuit - breaker limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18%. - Margin requirements: The company's margin requirements for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 28%. - Intraday opening limits: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical News - On December 19th, officials from Turkey, the US, Qatar, and Egypt held a meeting in Miami, USA, to discuss the implementation of the first phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. The cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4].