市场双周观察（第二期）

Macro Economic Outlook - The market is expected to reprice current economic realities and future interest rate cuts as the U.S. economic data gradually recovers from the impact of the standstill[2] - Increased market volatility is anticipated in the next two weeks, necessitating heightened vigilance[2] Global Market Performance - Global markets were primarily influenced by U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, with the domestic market affected by policy and economic data[3] - The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points in December, leading to a weaker dollar, while the Bank of Japan raised rates without a clear future rate hike schedule, resulting in a weaker yen[3] - A-shares saw significant declines, with the ChiNext Index down by 2.26% and the Science and Technology Innovation Board down by 2.99% over the two-week period[8] Stock Market Valuation - The P/E ratio for the CSI 300 Index is 74.8, while the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 72.2, indicating relatively high valuations compared to historical averages[9] - The P/B ratio for the CSI 300 Index is 82.5, suggesting a premium valuation compared to historical norms[11] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector led A-share performance with an 8.6% increase over the past two weeks, while the banking sector saw a decline of 0.9%[13] - The non-bank financial sector outperformed with a 7.5% increase, indicating strong investor interest[13] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds is at 1.84%, while U.S. 10-year bonds yield 4.14%, highlighting a significant yield gap[15] - The FOMC's interest rate cut expectations suggest two more cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 65.32% and 34.68% for March and July, respectively[18] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant price increases, with silver up by 8.28% over the past week[44] - Lithium carbonate has emerged as a leading commodity, reflecting strong demand in the market[42]