军工本周观点：商业航天X太空算力X重返月球：国防军工-20251222

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid advancement of the commercial aerospace sector, driven by recent developments such as Google's "Project Suncatcher" and the U.S. government's renewed focus on lunar exploration [35][36]. - The military aerospace index rose by 1.53% during the week of December 15-19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.28% [9][14]. - The report emphasizes the expected strong recovery in demand for the military industry by 2026, suggesting a favorable outlook for future funding and investment [38]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The military aerospace index increased by 1.53% from December 15 to 19, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, resulting in an excess return of 1.8 percentage points [9][14]. - Since 2025, the military aerospace index has risen by 22.95%, compared to a 16.09% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, leading to a relative excess return of 6.85 percentage points [15]. - The aerospace and commercial aerospace sectors performed particularly well due to frequent launches, while the information technology sector showed relatively flat performance [19][20]. Key Industry and Company News - On December 17, Google announced "Project Suncatcher," which aims to create a solar-powered space data center using a cluster of 81 AI-equipped satellites [35]. - The U.S. Space Force awarded contracts worth $3.5 billion for the procurement of 72 missile warning and tracking satellites, marking the largest deal for low Earth orbit constellations to date [36]. - Domestic developments include multiple successful launches in China's commercial aerospace sector, with upcoming missions expected [36][39]. Funding and Valuation - The report notes a net outflow of passive funds from military ETFs, amounting to 3.865 billion yuan, while leveraged funds saw a significant increase in inflows [24][28]. - As of December 19, the military aerospace index had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 71.89, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels, but with strong recovery expectations for 2026 [38][29]. - The report suggests that the military industry is poised for significant growth driven by multiple catalysts, including the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary of the military [38].