Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next year's first - quarter central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity operations are likely to remain loose, and stable money prices have become the norm. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate may fall below 1.6% at the turn of the year and rise after mid - January but not exceed 1.7%. There may be a central decline in the short - end [3][10]. - The yield curve has steepened due to the rise of ultra - long - end and then the decline of the short - end. The decline of the short - end reflects the further consolidation of the loose liquidity expectation. The central bank's repurchase operations and stable money prices at the end of the year catalyze the loose liquidity expectation [4][11]. - The expected increase in the central bank's bond - buying scale drives the short - end treasury bond yield to decline. The large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by big banks in the secondary market may also lead to an unexpected decline in short - end yields [3][13]. - The decline of short - end treasury bond yields may drive the decline of other short - end varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit. The current 1 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.35%, equivalent to around 1.3% in history [4][15]. - The steeper the yield curve, the safer it is. The decline of the short - end may be a signal that the ultra - long - end adjustment is in place. The current 30 - year treasury bond is at an extreme position, and the enlarged term spread can reflect the pricing of future risks [4][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Curve Steeper, Safer - Short - end Yield Outlook: The central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity operations in the first quarter of next year are likely to remain loose. The inter - bank certificate of deposit rate may decline at the turn of the year and rise slightly later, and there may be a central decline in the short - end [3][10]. - Yield Curve Steepening Reason: The short - end and long - end are separated. After the "bear steepening" of the ultra - long - end, the short - end decline drives the curve to steepen further. The short - end decline reflects the consolidation of the loose liquidity expectation, which is related to the central bank's repurchase operations and stable money prices [11]. - Factor Driving Short - end Yield Decline: The expected increase in the central bank's bond - buying scale and the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by big banks in the secondary market may drive the short - end treasury bond yield to decline [13]. - Impact on Other Short - end Varieties: The decline of short - end treasury bond yields may drive the decline of other short - end varieties such as inter - bank certificates of deposit. The current 1 - year treasury bond yield has fallen to around 1.35%, equivalent to around 1.3% in history [15]. - Signal of Ultra - long - end Adjustment: The decline of the short - end may be a signal that the ultra - long - end adjustment is in place. The 30 - year treasury bond is at an extreme position, and the enlarged term spread provides safety protection for the long - end and ultra - long - end [17].
流动性周报：曲线越陡越安全-20251222
China Post Securities·2025-12-22 05:36