日度策略参考-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Fuel Oil [1] - Sideways: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Zinc, Precious Metals, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some non - ferrous metals and precious metals are showing positive trends, while the prices of some agricultural products and energy - chemical products are under pressure or in a sideways pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - financial - Stock Index: In the short term, it will continue to be weak. The adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window for the upward movement next year. Investors can consider gradually building long positions during the adjustment [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the recovery of market risk appetite, the copper price is running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and the aluminum price is oscillating strongly [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved and the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The global nickel inventory is still high. Due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the primary nickel market is in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel iron has stabilized, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The steel mills' production reduction in December is expected to increase. The futures price has continued to rebound, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and the tin price has strengthened due to capital speculation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and geopolitical tensions support the price, but the Fed officials' remarks bring short - term volatility risks [1]. - Silver: Macro - drivers, supply - demand imbalance, and increasing ETF holdings are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The outer - market platinum price has reached a new high, and the inner - market may follow the upward trend. However, due to the high premium of the domestic futures price and the exchange's risk - control measures, short - term volatility risks should be noted [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: It is in the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply side has increased production resumption [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The supply - demand situation is acceptable, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [1]. - Coal and Coke: After the negative news was digested, there were signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will carry out winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean Oil: It is affected by the weak performance of the CBOT market and other domestic oils and is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be over, and the global main producing areas are expected to have a good harvest. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The new domestic crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The market is currently in a situation of "supported but without a driver" [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large - scale supply of new domestic crops. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support [1]. - Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The inventory at each link is at a historical low, and there is expected to be stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - Soybean: The US soybean export is weak, and the Brazilian soybean is expected to have a good harvest. The inner - market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Pulp: The futures price is affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline in the outer - market quotation and spot price, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy - Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1]. - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and there are factors such as the possible falsification of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand and sufficient supply of Mare crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost has increased, the price has risen, the operating rate has remained high, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester pre - holiday stocking sales have improved [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price has fallen due to inventory accumulation, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - Short - fiber: The price closely follows the cost [1]. - Benzene and Naphtha: The cost provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment has recovered, and the total inventory remains high [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, but the cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is oscillating in a range [1]. - Caustic Soda: The procurement rhythm has slowed down, the operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market has returned to the basic - face loosening logic, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].