中辉能化观点-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebound [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Oscillate weakly [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and inventory levels. It provides investment suggestions for each product based on their specific market conditions [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus pull the oil price, which oscillates weakly. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors include the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and rising uncertainties in South America. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global floating storage and on - the - way crude, and rising inventories in the US. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1][9]. - Strategy: Add short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11]. LPG - Core View: Cautiously bearish. - Main Logic: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations increase, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. Inventory is favorable, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing [1][15]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16]. L - Core View: Bearish continuation. - Main Logic: Supply elasticity is insufficient, and the basis is continuously weak. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with low shutdown ratios and insufficient maintenance. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing slightly, facing de - stocking pressure [1][20]. - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on L in the range of [6250 - 6400] [20]. PP - Core View: Bearish continuation. - Main Logic: The total commercial inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. In December, the demand enters the off - season, and the shutdown ratio drops. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on PP in the range of [6150 - 6300] [24]. PVC - Core View: Bearish continuation. - Main Logic: High inventory and high premium structure limit the rebound space. Although overseas device shutdowns and maintenance support exports, the current upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and supply reduction is insufficient. Recently, both chlorine and alkali prices have fallen, and some marginal devices are reducing loads [1][27]. - Strategy: Close short - term long positions. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long on dips in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on V in the range of [4550 - 4650] [27]. PX/PTA - Core View: Cautiously chase up. - Main Logic: The supply side has a slight reduction in load, with significant maintenance of PTA devices. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost end provides support. In the short - term, the fundamentals are healthy, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [3][29]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on TA in the range of [4880 - 5010] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Core View: Short on rebound. - Main Logic: Domestic ethylene glycol device operation loads increase, and overseas devices change little. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. Port inventories are rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [3][32]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG05 in the range of [3710 - 3770] [33]. Methanol - Core View: Cautiously chase up. - Main Logic: Taicang spot prices weaken slightly, and the negative basis strengthens. Port inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are increasing. The supply side has relatively good profits for coal/coke oven gas processes, and domestic device operation loads are at a high level. Overseas devices have a slight reduction in load. The demand side weakens slightly, and coal - based costs are expected to strengthen [3][36]. - Strategy: Do not chase the rally. Look for opportunities to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on MA05 in the range of [2131 - 2181] [38]. Urea - Core View: Oscillate weakly. - Main Logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong stabilizes. The supply pressure is expected to increase in late December as some devices resume production. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [3][40]. - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on UR05 in the range of [1660 - 1700] [42]. Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously bearish. - Main Logic: The shutdown of a production line at the US Freeport and relatively mild recent temperatures put pressure on gas prices. Supply increases as US exports decrease, and demand support weakens due to mild weather [6][45]. - Strategy: Focus on NG in the range of [3.895 - 4.260] [45]. Asphalt - Core View: Bearish rebound. - Main Logic: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. The supply and demand are both weak, but recent South American geopolitical uncertainties cause a short - term price rebound [6][48]. - Strategy: Partially close short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49]. Glass - Core View: Bearish consolidation. - Main Logic: The in - plant inventory ends a three - week decline. High inventory limits the rebound space. The production line is stable, and the three - process profits turn negative. Real estate volume and prices are in an adjustment period [6][52]. - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1020 - 1060] [52]. Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish consolidation. - Main Logic: The number of warehouse receipts increases, and the in - plant inventory ends a five - week high - level decline. Although maintenance eases short - term supply pressure, the planned commissioning of a 2.8 - million - tonne device at Yuanxing in late December will keep the long - term supply loose. The demand support from the glass industry is insufficient [6][56]. - Strategy: Partially close short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [56].