Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [6]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation repair of domestic assets still has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the central fluctuation range of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. - The trend of crude oil is uncertain. The price of Brent crude oil is near the $60 integer mark. Investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [20]. - The spot supply of fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [23]. - The polyolefin market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Natural rubber is expected to show a volatile trend [33]. - The PVC market continues to have a supply - surplus situation, and investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - The downward space of urea prices is limited [37]. - PX may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. - PTA may have an upward driving force in the short term. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. - Short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [46]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [48]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [51]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [53]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [59]. - Palm oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [61]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [64]. - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [68]. - Sugar prices are expected to run weakly and oscillate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to run strongly [73]. - For live pigs, investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [76]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [78]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on the day. It is expected that there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, so stay cautious [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation repair of domestic assets has room, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the central fluctuation range will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the US consumer confidence index was lower than expected. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise. Investors can wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The production capacity is in surplus, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The prices may continue the weak and volatile pattern. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The national hot - metal daily output has been declining since October, the supply has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures oscillated. The production of domestic coking coal has decreased, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The futures may continue to rebound in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed up. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues, but the downward space of costs is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot losses expand [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after reaching a low. The US imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2026. The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and investors need to wait for the market to become clear and temporarily stay on the sidelines [19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The supply of marine fuel oil in Asia is suddenly tight, and the cost - end crude oil stabilizes. The fuel oil price has fallen to a new low this year and has a large rebound space. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. The production of polyolefins is expected to be stable with slight fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may be slightly relieved, but the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The market is still in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment to some extent. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The price has been rising slightly recently, supported by costs and demand. The follow - up needs to focus on changes in supply - side devices and the recovery of demand [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. It is expected that the market will continue the long - short game, and the rubber price may show a volatile trend. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, the demand from the tire industry is slow, and the inventory continues to accumulate [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply - surplus situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. The upward trend needs to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. After the festival, focus on exports and supply reduction [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly this week. The daily production is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak. The downward space of prices is limited [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and there may be pressure above. The short - term profit has improved, the start - up rate is stable, and the cost - end crude oil has a short - term rebound drive. The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month. In the short term, PX may fluctuate strongly. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels and be vigilant about changes in crude oil and macro - policies [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable, but the terminal loom load has declined. The processing fee has rebounded slightly, and the inventory is still at a low level. In the short term, PTA may have an upward driving force. Investors can consider participating at low levels, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The new investment and restart of ethylene glycol devices have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pre - arrival at the port has increased. In the short term, it may maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply of short - fiber has declined but remains at a relatively high level, the demand support has weakened, but the cost drive has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. In the short term, it may follow the raw material price to oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has been adjusted to around 500 yuan/ton. The load of bottle - chip factories has decreased, the export growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand structure has improved slightly month - on - month. It is expected to follow the cost side to oscillate. Investors should control risks [42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US employment data and inflation data have affected market expectations. The fundamentals are in a tight balance, the supply shortage risk remains, and the demand has short - term pressure. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The demand is average, and the inventory has changed. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [47]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is under pressure, the refined zinc production has decreased, the downstream demand has declined, and the LME zinc inventory has increased. The zinc price is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment [49][50]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range [52]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production in Wa State is progressing slowly, and the import from Indonesia may be affected. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory has decreased. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel - ore quota in 2026 and may tax associated resources. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Nickel is still in a surplus pattern, and investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [55][56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. Brazilian soybean planting is nearly completed, and the US soybean price has declined. The domestic soybean arrival volume is at a high level, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the inventory pressure is still large. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, the short - term downward space may be limited, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in call options [57][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has fallen for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the export in Malaysia has increased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - low level in the past seven years. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures have fallen for six consecutive days. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory has decreased. Investors should temporarily stay on the sidelines [62][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly, and overseas cotton futures rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton industry policy will reduce the sown area by more than 10%. The global and US cotton inventories have increased. The domestic cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the demand is average. The cotton price is expected to run strongly [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell, and overseas raw - sugar futures rose. The domestic sugar import in November decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian sugar export decreased slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. The domestic new - sugar supply pressure is increasing, and the import volume in December is expected to be high. The sugar price is expected to run weakly and oscillate [69][71]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated and rose. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly [72][73]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has fallen. The northern market may turn strong, and the southern market's decline expectation may converge. The supply and demand situation and inventory have changed. Investors should continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption brought by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [74][76]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas has remained flat. The egg - chicken inventory is at a high level, and the consumption may weaken after the winter solstice. The supply improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors should consider temporarily staying on the sidelines [77][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The northern - port corn inventory is accumulating, the import may increase in the future, the new - season corn in the main producing areas is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the cost may be revised down. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is at a high level. They may follow the market trend. Investors should wait patiently for the further release of supply pressure [79][80].
西南期货早间评论-20251222
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-22 05:58