国投期货 2026 年度策略报告：恒中有变，观复顺时-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - 2025 Review: In 2025, Trump's reforms led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the difficulties in managing US dollar liquidity contributed to the rise of TACO trading. China maintained credit expansion and asset price prosperity due to the decline in external financial headwinds. However, the transmission from credit expansion to inflation was slow, and the economic structure showed a clear "virtual - real" divide [6][9]. - 2026 Outlook: The key point in 2026 is whether the US can effectively maintain the stability of its yield curve. The pressure on US liquidity management may catalyze international cooperation and policy coordination. China's macro - policies aim to tap economic potential and expand domestic demand, promoting price recovery and the maturation of new productive forces [7]. - 2026 Asset Outlook: In 2026, the operation of major asset classes will likely transition from the "recovery" to the "expansion" quadrant. The RMB is likely to appreciate with attention to the appreciation rhythm. Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, and domestic commodities will gradually bottom out and move upward [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic and Major Asset Performance Review 1.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the US dollar was initially strong under the "Trump trade" expectation but weakened due to challenges in the offshore financial system. The Fed's attempts to control the "loose" rhythm led to on - shore liquidity tensions. The difficulty in balancing US dollar liquidity formed the basis of TACO trading. The global economic cycle supported a slight weakening of the US dollar [9][10]. 1.2 Chinese Economy - China's economy in 2025 was characterized by the repair of credit factors. With a weakening US dollar index, China maintained a loose monetary policy and increased fiscal deficits. The steepening of the Chinese bond yield curve was significant for credit expansion. However, the transmission from credit to inflation was blocked, and the economic structure showed a "virtual - real" divide [16][17]. 1.3 Policy Framework - In 2025, complex geopolitical games and domestic economic policies were interlinked. The Fed adopted a gradual easing policy to avoid excessive weakness of the US dollar. China's macro - policies were introduced gradually, focusing on maintaining external balance and shifting towards "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" [23][28]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Policy Logic: US Policy Constraints 2.1.1 Fed's Constraints - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in controlling the yield curve. After the Silicon Valley Bank shock, the Fed tried to repair the inverted yield curve. However, in H2 2025, due to the low level of RRP, the Fed had to stop shrinking its balance sheet [30][31]. 2.1.2 US Fiscal Constraints - The US fiscal deficit is expected to remain at around 6% of GDP in 2026. The OBBBA - related tax - refund policy will widen the deficit gap in H1, but it may be offset by increased tariff revenues. The US Treasury may continue to issue more short - term bonds, and the Fed is expected to purchase over $400 billion of short - term bonds in 2026 [33][40]. 2.1.3 Summary - The Fed needs to cooperate with the US Treasury to maintain the stability of the yield curve. The management of the US Treasury yield curve is not only related to domestic policy trade - offs but also to international games and cooperation [47]. 2.2 Macro - game Coordinate System: Yield Curve and US Dollar Combination 2.2.1 Yield Curve Steepening Scenarios - Scenario A (Steep Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar): A controllable steep yield curve and a weak US dollar can bring positive effects such as alleviating inflation pressure and promoting global economic recovery. However, an uncontrollable steep yield curve may lead to debt selling pressure. The positive scenario is of high probability, while the negative scenario is of low probability [50][57][62]. - Scenario B (Steep Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar): If the Fed successfully controls the yield curve and the confidence in the US dollar is restored, it can lead to a positive scenario. A crisis - mode scenario is of low probability [63][65]. 2.2.2 Yield Curve Flattening Scenarios - Scenario C (Flat Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar): A controllable flat yield curve and a strong US dollar can reflect the Fed's management ability. A rapid inversion of the yield curve is a low - probability negative scenario [66][68][69]. - Scenario D (Flat Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar): A smooth decline of the yield curve and a weak US dollar can benefit non - US economies. A rapid inversion of the yield curve and a weak US dollar is a low - probability negative scenario [70][72]. 2.2.3 Summary - Managing the yield curve is crucial in 2026. The benchmark scenarios are those where the US Treasury bond can strengthen steadily or the yield curve steepens significantly in H1 and then declines controllably [73][74][76]. 2.3 Cycle Operation: Sino - US Policy Interaction from a Cycle Perspective 2.3.1 Cycle Positioning - Since 2023, the global inventory cycle has lost elasticity. In 2024, the US inventory cycle started to bottom out, and in 2025, China's inventory cycle also reached a low point. In 2026, the global cycle will progress further, and China's inventory cycle will play a more important role [77][80][84]. 2.3.2 Cycle Mechanism - The pressure from China's real - estate cycle and the US's restrictive policies has affected the global inventory cycle. The increasing pressure on US financial market liquidity has promoted Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and laid the foundation for geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 [89][91][94]. 2.3.3 China's Policy Choices - In 2026, China's macro - policies will remain positive, focusing on tapping economic potential and integrating policies. The main focuses are "dual - carbon leadership", "anti - involution", and stabilizing the real - estate market [95]. 3. Major Asset Classes 3.1 Major Asset Coordinate System - The coordinate system for major assets is constructed from the dimensions of real supply - demand and price elasticity. In 2026, major assets are likely to move from the lower - left quadrant to the upper - left quadrant, and the management of the US yield curve and the trend of the US dollar will affect the process [97][100][104]. 3.2 Analysis of Various Assets - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately first and then enter a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible range of 6.7 - 7.2. Key factors include the US dollar index and the implementation of domestic demand - stimulating policies [105]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. If the interest rate is cut by 10bp, the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%. In an optimistic scenario, with a 20bp cut, the range will be 1.55% - 1.85% [106]. - Stock Market: The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, with a positive outlook of oscillating upward [107]. - Commodities: The commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance, and structural differentiation". It may experience wide - range fluctuations in H1 and a "re - inflation" - driven recovery in H2 if policies are effective [115].