煤价有底，预计26年开启需求上行周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize, with a bottom range projected between 680-700 RMB/ton. The demand is currently at a median level compared to the past five years, and port inventories are showing a downward trend. The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices to over 800 RMB/ton by November [3][4]. - The coal sector is believed to have reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. A new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week. The price of Q5000 coal at the same port is 620 RMB/ton, also down 42 RMB/ton (-6.3%) [6][12]. - Domestic coal prices are generally declining, while international prices are mixed, with Newcastle coal prices showing a slight increase [41][49]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply remains stable, with imports expected to decrease. The report notes that the demand for coal is improving significantly during the off-peak season, with Q3 profits anticipated to rebound [3][4]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 279.7 million tons, down 7.1% from the previous week [58]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports is 694 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10 RMB/ton (1.5%) [34]. - The report indicates that the long-term contract prices for coking coal have remained stable compared to the previous week [59]. Key Market Events - The report highlights significant developments in coal transportation infrastructure in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to enhance coal logistics efficiency and capacity [81]. - It also notes that coal prices have continued to decline in early December, with various types of coal experiencing price drops [81].