集运日报：多头情绪再度回升盘面偏强震荡符合日报预期已建议全部止盈-20251222

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take full profits. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Indexes - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. The NCFI (European route) was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period. The SCFIS (US West route) was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period. The NCFI (US West route) was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period [1] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points on December 19, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period. The CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period. The SCFI US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period. The CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [1] PMI Data - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business climate improving. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5 but still above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, recording the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Services PMI was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The preliminary value of the US November S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [2] Market and Contract Information - On December 19, the main contract 2602 closed at 1719.8, with a decline of 3.66%, a trading volume of 31,600 lots, and an open interest of 31,500 lots, a decrease of 136 lots from the previous day [2] - The market's long - short game is fierce, with no obvious trading direction. The bearish sentiment has subsided, and the bullish sentiment has rebounded again, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend [1][2] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the volatility of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers have been recommended to go long on the main contract with a light position and have been advised to take full profits. It is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high point, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [3] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3] - On December 19, Turkish, US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials held a meeting in Miami to discuss the implementation of the first - phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and the arrangements for the transition to the second phase. Although there have been multiple violations, the cease - fire has generally continued, the release of detainees has been completed, and ground conflicts have significantly decreased [4]