利率债2026年策略：中性震荡，关注回调配置机会

Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond yield exhibited an "N" shaped trend in 2025, fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, primarily due to the central bank's liquidity tightening and inflation expectations [4][10][17] - The domestic economy in 2025 is characterized by strong volume but weak prices, with external demand stronger than internal demand, leading to an expected GDP growth of 5% [4][27] - The report highlights that the export growth rate is projected to be around 6.0%, significantly above market expectations, supported by improved Sino-US trade relations and diversification of Chinese enterprises [4][27] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the economy is expected to stabilize and gradually emerge from deflation, with a cautious approach to overall policy easing [5][39] - The report anticipates that the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a budget deficit rate potentially maintained at 4% and an increase in local government special bond issuance [5][52] - Monetary policy is expected to remain cautiously accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points and a possible reserve requirement ratio reduction [5][57] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests a neutral fluctuation in interest rates, with a focus on opportunities for reallocation during market corrections [6][39] - The report notes that the bond market may experience limited upward and downward movement in yields, with the fluctuation range expected to be between 1.60% and 2.0% [6][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in bank liabilities, particularly as a peak in fixed deposit maturities approaches in 2026 [6][39]