宏观点评：经济加速“去地产化”-20251222

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion, with the global manufacturing PMI at 50.5% in November[5] - The US manufacturing PMI is at 52.2%, indicating relatively high economic activity, while the Eurozone PMI is at 49.6%[5] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since October 2021, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000[7] Domestic Macro - China's economic data weakened in November, with industrial value-added growth at 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from October[12] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in November, with real estate investment down 30.1%[19] - Exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in November, with a significant decline in exports to the US by 28.6%[20] Policy Environment - Global uncertainty has decreased, but domestic stimulus policies remain weak, focusing on liquidity support rather than aggressive stimulus[25] - The People's Bank of China injected 110 billion yuan through reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan via MLF in November, indicating a stable liquidity approach[27] Market Trends - Precious metals surged, with the RMB appreciating slightly, while the Chinese stock market experienced a pullback[30] - Structural opportunities exist in the Chinese stock market, particularly in technology and AI sectors, despite overall cautious sentiment towards consumer and cyclical sectors[33] Price Trends - China's CPI rose by 0.7% in November, driven by a 14.5% increase in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI fell by 2.2%[22]