——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.15-12.21）：热轧与螺纹钢的价差处于6年同期最低水平-20251222

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]