第51周成交回升，明年政策兜底有助市场稳定

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that quality developers will benefit from the expected policy support in the coming year [2][18]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a rebound in real estate transactions, driven by strong expectations for next year's policies, which will aid market consolidation and the development of new real estate models [2][18]. - In the 51st week of 2025, new home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.27 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% [19]. - First-tier cities sold 520,000 square meters, up 10.4% week-on-week but down 42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities sold 1.27 million square meters, up 13.45% week-on-week but down 30% year-on-year [19]. - The cumulative sales from December 1-18, 2025, in 30 cities totaled 5.27 million square meters, up 33% from November 2025 but down 30% year-on-year [19]. - Second-hand home sales in 24 cities also saw a rise, with 2.13 million square meters sold, up 1.71% week-on-week but down 25.3% year-on-year [20]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities rebounded, with land supply at 11.48 million square meters and transactions at 46.03 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 0.25 [21]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In the 51st week of 2025, new home sales in major cities showed a significant week-on-week increase, with first-tier cities experiencing a 10.4% rise and second-tier cities a 13.45% rise [19]. - The cumulative sales from December 1-18, 2025, indicate a positive trend compared to the previous month, although year-on-year comparisons remain negative [19]. Second-hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales also increased slightly, with a 1.71% rise week-on-week across 24 cities, although year-on-year figures still reflect a decline [20]. Land Transactions - The report highlights a rebound in land transactions, with a notable increase in both supply and sales, indicating a more active land market [21]. - The cumulative land transfer revenue for the year shows a decline compared to the previous year, but the recent week’s performance suggests a potential recovery [21]. Inventory and Clearance Cycle - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities has increased, indicating a longer time required to sell existing inventory, which may impact future sales dynamics [22].