申万公用环保周报(25/12/15~25/12/19):11月发电增速环比放缓进口LNG现货价格继续下跌-20251222
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-22 07:46

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors within the energy industry, indicating a positive outlook for certain companies and sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in electricity generation growth in November 2025, with total generation at 779.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. The growth was primarily driven by hydropower and wind power, while thermal power saw a decline [5][6]. - Natural gas prices in the U.S. and Europe have shown slight fluctuations, with U.S. Henry Hub spot prices at $3.58/mmBtu, reflecting a 12.1% weekly decline. Northeast Asia's LNG prices have also decreased, reaching $9.50/mmBtu, marking a 5% drop [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the increasing contribution of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, to the overall electricity generation mix, with significant year-on-year growth rates [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Generation - November 2025 saw total electricity generation of 779.2 billion kWh, up 2.7% year-on-year. Thermal power generation decreased by 4.2% to 497.0 billion kWh, while hydropower increased by 17.1% to 96.7 billion kWh. Wind power grew by 22.0% to 104.6 billion kWh, and solar power rose by 23.4% to 41.2 billion kWh [5][7]. - From January to November 2025, total electricity generation reached 88,567 billion kWh, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar energy [12][13]. 2. Natural Gas Market - As of December 19, 2025, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices were $3.58/mmBtu, down 12.1% from the previous week. European gas prices showed slight increases, with the Dutch TTF price at €28.10/MWh, up 2.0% [18][19]. - The report notes that the supply of natural gas remains high, with U.S. production at historical levels, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [18][19]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations. For hydropower, companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming winter and spring [16][38]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested as key players due to their stable cost structures and growth potential [16][38]. - Renewable energy operators like Xinneng Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as the market for green certificates and environmental values continues to grow [16][38].