全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [22] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market continues to cool, inflation eases, and the Fed's policy focus remains on employment with future rate cuts as the baseline. Market expects a likely pause in rate cuts in January, and the new Fed Chair selection may reshape the rate cut path. Japan's central bank hiked rates, and overseas risk appetite rebounded. China's November economic data was weak, but the entry of state - owned funds boosted A - share confidence [4]. - Global commodity markets rebounded, with energy prices weakening and metals performing strongly. China's domestic commodity market sentiment improved [20]. - Different asset classes are expected to show oscillatory trends in the short - term, with the bond market likely to recover moderately [22]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - US: Non - farm data was mixed, employment cooled, CPI dropped unexpectedly, and the Fed's policy leans towards rate cuts. The new Fed Chair selection is pending, and candidates support significant rate cuts. - Japan: The central bank hiked rates by 25bp, but the stance was less hawkish than expected. - China: November economic data declined, with supply - demand imbalance. However, state - owned funds entered the market, boosting A - share confidence [4]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets corrected. Developed markets: S&P 500 rose 0.1%, Nikkei 225 fell 2.61%, etc. Emerging markets: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, etc. MSCI indices showed different trends, with frontier > developed > global > emerging [6][8]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index oscillated, appreciating 0.32%. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar, while some emerging market and developed market currencies had different trends, such as the Mexican peso depreciating 0.12% and the Brazilian real depreciating 2.06% [10][12]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global major countries' 10 - year government bond yields oscillated narrowly. In developed countries, US bond yields dropped 3bp to 4.16%, while in emerging markets, China's bond yields dropped 1bp to 1.83% [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market rebounded. Energy prices weakened (WTI crude oil fell 1.72%, natural gas fell 1.83%), while metals were strong (LME copper rose 2.85%, LME aluminum rose 2.43%). Gold oscillated at a high level, and silver rose strongly [19][20]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level, with attention on whether it can break through the previous high. Silver prices rose sharply, but there is a risk of decline. The gold - silver ratio dropped to 65.6 [22][23][35]. 3.3.2 US Dollar - The US dollar is bearish due to the weakening labor market and falling inflation [22][36]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend, supported by economic data for rate cuts, alleviated AI bubble concerns, and strong year - end seasonality [22][40]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate at a high level, affected by factors such as year - end capital holding [22][50][57]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is expected to recover moderately, with improved trading structure and favorable fundamentals [58]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - US: GDPNow model estimated Q3 growth at 3.47%, retail sales were resilient, inflation expectations dropped, and the employment market continued to cool. Bank liquidity is expected to improve, and corporate bond credit spreads rose slightly. November non - farm data was mixed, and CPI dropped [74][82][85]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Real estate transactions were weak, and market pessimism persisted. November economic data showed a weakening trend, with investment, consumption, and credit data under pressure. CPI and PPI showed a K - shaped divergence, and exports outperformed expectations [86][98][109].