行业深度报告：太空算力有望推动商业航天产业变革

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and aerospace industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The collaboration between policy and industry is driving a new development phase for China's commercial aerospace sector, with significant advancements in technology and capital market engagement expected [4][42] - The deployment of space computing is anticipated to create a sustainable economic model for commercial aerospace, with operational costs projected to be significantly lower than ground-based data centers [19][20] - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is expected to achieve a market value of 85 billion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased launch frequency [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Low Earth Orbit Satellite Planning - China has ambitious plans for low Earth orbit satellites, with over 12,000 satellites proposed under the national plan and additional projects like the G60 constellation aiming for over 14,000 satellites [12] - However, the launch progress is slow, with only 86 satellites launched by the national plan and 90 by the G60 project as of October 2025, indicating significant bottlenecks in deployment [12] 2. Space Computing Potential - Space computing is expected to provide a solution for the long-term economic closure of commercial aerospace, with lifecycle operational costs projected to be 1/20 of ground-based data centers [19] - The anticipated deployment of space computing will enable a "multi-launch, multi-saving" model, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [20] 3. Challenges and Breakthroughs in Space Computing - The deployment of space computing faces challenges such as launch capacity, radiation resistance of electronic components, and energy supply in orbit, but clear pathways for technological breakthroughs are emerging [29][30] - Companies are developing solutions to address these challenges, including advanced radiation shielding and energy-efficient cooling systems [31] 4. Industry Transformation through Space Computing - The introduction of space computing is expected to catalyze a significant transformation in the commercial aerospace industry, enabling large-scale applications and innovations as costs decrease [36] - The capacity limitations of low Earth orbit satellites will accelerate the deployment of space computing clusters, which are prioritized for their favorable conditions [36] 5. Comparison with U.S. Industry - There are notable gaps between China's and the U.S.'s capabilities in space computing, particularly in launch capacity and cost efficiency, with China's reusable rocket technology still in the validation phase [38] - The expected advancements in China's reusable rocket technology are projected to follow a similar trajectory to that of SpaceX, with significant improvements anticipated in the coming years [38]