East Money Securities·2025-12-22 07:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Outperform" rating for the health supplement industry [3] Core Insights - The health supplement market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a retail scale projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.3% from 2019 to 2024 [6][16] - The industry is characterized by a dual driving force from both mature markets and emerging consumer trends, with a notable shift towards younger demographics and new consumption patterns [22][40] - The contract manufacturing segment is anticipated to see increased concentration, benefiting from stable demand growth and the influx of new brands [2][8] Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Expansion of Health Supplements - The health supplement market is expanding, with the global market expected to reach 191.5 billion USD by 2024 [16] - The penetration rate of health supplements in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential [21][20] 2. Consumer Changes Driving Channel Transformation and Product Iteration - The primary sales channels for health supplements have shifted from direct sales and pharmacies to e-commerce, with e-commerce accounting for 48.02% of sales in 2023 [46] - The rise of live-streaming e-commerce has significantly contributed to the growth of the health supplement industry, with a penetration rate projected to reach 34.3% by 2024 [6][46] 3. Increased Concentration in the Contract Manufacturing Segment - The contract manufacturing segment is expected to benefit from the growing demand for health supplements, with major players like Xianle Health and Baihe Co. projected to capture significant market shares [2][7] - Brand owners are actively adapting to new trends, focusing on product innovation and channel diversification to capture market opportunities [8][7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading contract manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities and those that are well-positioned to benefit from emerging consumer trends [8] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Xianle Health and Baihe Co. in the contract manufacturing space, and H&H International Holdings and Tongrentang in the brand segment [8]