股指期货周报：汇金增持，信心恢复-20251222

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the liquidity supplement from Huijin's shareholding increase, the mid-term bottom of the A-share market has been confirmed, but the timing for an upward breakthrough has not arrived yet. It still needs to wait for continuous volume expansion and synergy of various funds [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties mainly fluctuated and consolidated. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 500 had relatively large increases. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties returned to the deep discount rhythm due to contract rollover, and most of the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures-spot basis of the main contracts of stock index futures was 2.06 for IH, -41.18 for IF, -114.15 for IC, and -188.01 for IM [4] - The A-share market as a whole showed a pattern of first decline and then rise last week, with certain style switching characteristics. The technical pattern of the Shanghai Composite Index was somewhat repaired, but the STAR Market Index remained in a relatively weak pattern. Various style sectors in the industry rotated alternately. The commercial aerospace sector, which has received the most attention recently, had a huge trading volume but began to show wide fluctuations this week, with internal stock differentiation. Many stocks in the weighted electronic semiconductor sector were in weak adjustment. Previously long-term cold industries, including cyclical and consumer sectors, began to be active in turns. The long-term dominance of the technology industry in the market seems to be changing, but this change is not yet very clear, mainly because the trading volume of the newly active sectors is not large, so whether the style change can continue still needs further observation [4] Comprehensive Analysis - In terms of macroeconomics, the economic data in November generally declined on both the supply and demand sides. The fundamentals of foreign trade exports still have support this year, and fixed asset investment is expected to improve moderately driven by policies such as policy-based financial instruments and incremental local government bond quotas, but the consumption temperature in December may still be low [5][6] - Overseas, the US CPI in November was significantly lower than expected, and core service inflation cooled significantly, but the data has a lot of noise and the quality is questionable. Japan's benign inflation cycle is relatively stable, and the Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates again [6]