碳酸锂日报：江西地区政策变动频出，碳酸锂情绪短期仍在延续-20251222

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Supply - side cost support and supply concerns, stable high - level demand for new energy vehicles, and continuous inventory decline support the price, while stable capacity utilization and slowing demand growth may limit the upside space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 19, 2025, the main contract price of lithium carbonate was reported at 111,400 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5,240 yuan/ton or 4.94% from the previous day. The basis was - 11,800 yuan/ton, weakening by 4,440 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest of the main contract decreased slightly to 668,829 lots on December 19, 2025, a decrease of 3,882 lots or 0.58% from the previous day. The trading volume also contracted to 928,963 lots, a decrease of 84,953 lots or 8.38% from the previous day [1]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: On December 19, 2025, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate rose to 5,565 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 83.52%. The public notice of the Jianxiawo lithium mine project on December 19, 2025, caused supply concerns, but the actual impact was limited. New projects were under construction with little short - term production pressure [2]. - Demand Side: As of December 17, 2025, the demand for new energy vehicles remained high but the growth rate slowed. From December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 62.3%. The prices of downstream battery materials were stable with a slight increase, and the demand for fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries supported demand resilience [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, 2025, a decrease of 1,044 tons or 0.94% from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend but at a slower pace. Although warehouse receipt data was not directly updated, the inventory decline reflected a tight supply - demand balance [2]. Price Trend Judgment - Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. Supply - side cost support and supply concerns, stable high - level demand for new energy vehicles, and continuous inventory decline support the price, while stable capacity utilization and slowing demand growth may limit the upside space [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Multiple product prices showed different trends on December 19, 2025, compared with December 18, 2025, or December 12, 2025, including increases in the main contract price of lithium carbonate, lithium ore prices, and some battery product prices, and decreases in the basis and the price of hexafluorophosphate [5]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On December 19, 2025, SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures price fluctuated within a range, and downstream material factories were cautious, with few actual transactions [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, 2025, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail and wholesale sales showed year - on - year decreases but high penetration rates [7]. - Industry News: On December 11, 2025, the cobalt intermediate product market was strong with limited supply. Also, companies were upgrading projects to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products to meet market demand [9].