电解铜区域性紧张持续发酵，强势之下关注前高

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, fluctuating between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike [3][39] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The SHFE main contract price rose from 92,460 yuan/ton on December 18th to 92,880 yuan/ton on December 19th, a 0.45% increase. The premium of premium copper deepened from - 100 yuan/ton on December 18th to - 120 yuan/ton on December 19th, and the discounts of flat - copper and wet - copper also deepened, showing a weakening of the spot basis. The LME (0 - 3) discount was - 13.89 dollars/ton on December 18th [1][34] - Position and Trading Volume: The LME copper position increased by 611 lots to 344,850 lots on December 18th. SMM information indicates that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, and downstream orders were weak, suggesting a possible contraction in trading volume [1][38] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: China's refined copper output in November was 1.236 million tons, a 11.9% year - on - year increase. However, the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 0 dollars/ton, lower than 21.25 dollars/ton in 2025, indicating tightening mine supply. Western Mining obtained a new mining license, but the short - term impact is limited [2][38] - Demand Side: Overall demand was weak. China's copper product output in November was 2.226 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. SMM expects the copper rod output in December to decline by 45,000 tons to 1 million tons, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to decline. Downstream orders only maintained rigid demand, and the demand in the automotive and construction sectors was flat [2][39] - Inventory Side: LME copper inventory increased from 44,650 tons on December 18th to 45,739 tons on December 19th, a 2.44% increase. SHFE inventory decreased from 164,275 tons to 160,400 tons, a 2.36% decrease. COMEX inventory increased. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 1.89% month - on - month, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.31%, showing a differentiated inventory structure [2][39] Price Trend Judgment - The report predicts that copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side shows an increase in production but a decrease in processing fees, indicating potential tightness; the demand side is weak, and year - end capital pressure restricts purchases; macro - sentiment is cautious with a slight increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut and a possible Bank of Japan rate hike. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][39]