两融资金未大规模撤离，债券交易沪强深弱

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The macro liquidity environment is easing, alleviating funding pressure and providing a stable cost advantage for brokerages' capital-intensive businesses such as proprietary trading and margin financing. The sustained high trading volume in equity funds is expected to support brokerage commission income. The margin financing balance has remained above 2.4 trillion, indicating a transition from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization" in the use of leverage in the A-share market, suggesting that the previously influxed leveraged funds have not significantly withdrawn but are instead showing a trend of "settling down" [4][6] - The bond market has shown a clear "strong in Shanghai, weak in Shenzhen" pattern, with Shanghai focusing on government bonds and policy financial bonds, which are more attractive for institutional funding due to their pledge financing convenience at year-end. This shift in funding between equity and bond markets may indicate subtle changes in current funding risk preferences [4][7] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The SHIBOR 3M rate has stabilized at 1.60%, showing a recovery from previous lows and indicating alleviated funding pressure [5][14] - The average daily trading volume of equity funds for the week from December 12 to December 19 was approximately 220.29 billion, reflecting a slight decline from the previous week's average of 238.02 billion, but still indicating that a trillion-level transaction has become the new normal for the A-share market [5][15] - As of December 18, the margin financing balance in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 2,499.366 billion, indicating a consolidation phase at high levels since September 2025, marking a transition in leverage use [6][18] - The China Bond New Comprehensive Index closed at 248.8624 points, currently stabilizing after a decline from November's peak, supported by a stable liquidity environment [6][19] - The brokerage sector's valuation has diverged significantly from the overall market, with the Shenwan brokerage index PE rising 5.63% year-to-date, compared to a 20.25% increase in the Shenwan A index, widening the gap to 14.62 percentage points [6][22] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index increased by 1.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.28%, with a relative outperformance of 1.29 percentage points [6][26] - For the year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 15.78%, while the brokerage sector has decreased by 0.11%, underperforming by 15.89 percentage points [6][26] - The A-share securities II sector ranked 14th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries last week, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [6][27]