原油、燃料油日报：美国再次扣押委方油轮，地缘支撑油价阶段性企稳-20251222

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis Main Contracts and Basis On December 19, 2025, the price of the SC main contract slightly declined to 426.6 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day, showing a downward trend during the session (falling from a high of 436.5 yuan). The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 55.9 dollars per barrel and 59.71 dollars per barrel, respectively, with no change. In terms of spreads, the SC - Brent spread weakened to 0.88 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 30.71%); the SC - WTI spread also weakened to 4.69 dollars per barrel, narrowing by 0.39 dollars (a decline of 7.68%); the Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 3.81 dollars per barrel. The spread between SC continuous and SC - 3 weakened to -3.9 yuan per barrel, deepening by 0.6 yuan (a decline of 18.18%), indicating increased pressure on near - month contracts [1]. Position and Trading Volume As of the week ending December 16, 2025, ICE Brent crude oil speculators' net long positions decreased by 74,876 lots to 32,940 lots, and ICE diesel net long positions decreased by 19,818 lots to 38,760 lots, indicating that market sentiment has turned cautious, and the outflow of speculative funds may reflect concerns about geopolitical risks. No specific trading volume data was provided [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis Supply Side On December 20, the Iraqi National Oil Company stated that the oil export agreement between Baghdad and Erbil was progressing smoothly, suggesting stable supply from OPEC+ members. On the same day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a Caspian Sea oil and gas drilling platform of Russia's Lukoil, intensifying geopolitical risks and potentially disrupting exports in the Caspian region. The US intercepted an oil tanker related to Venezuelan crude oil transportation last weekend and is still tracking another similar tanker, indicating a continuous tightening of policy enforcement. On December 19, Japan and Kazakhstan signed an energy cooperation agreement, which may increase Central Asian supply in the medium - to - long term. The exploration director of Mexico's state - owned oil company is expected to resign, bringing short - term uncertainties [3]. Demand Side The Indonesian Energy Minister announced the launch of the B50 biodiesel road test, planning to implement it in the second half of 2026, which may boost biodiesel demand in the long term but has limited short - term impact. There is no direct information on refined oil profits and refinery equipment. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has not been updated, and overall, the demand side lacks strong drivers [3]. Inventory Side As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424.417 million barrels, with analysts expecting a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma decreased by 742,000 barrels to 20.86 million barrels. US gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels to 225.627 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 2.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, with analysts expecting an increase of about 1.2 million barrels [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may enter a bottom - oscillation range, but geopolitical factors support prices to strengthen within the range. On the supply side, geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the stable Iraqi export agreement and the resumption of Venezuelan exports alleviate concerns about supply disruptions; OPEC+'s idle capacity and the limited impact of sanctions. On the demand side, the Indonesian B50 biodiesel test provides long - term benefits, but short - term refined oil demand lacks catalysts, and the delayed release of Chinese demand data increases uncertainties. Overall, geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions offset weak demand, and close attention should be paid to the development of international geopolitical situations [6].