紫金天风期货镍、不锈钢周报：急急急急-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is in a volatile state. Recently, affected by the strengthened expectation of fundamental surplus, the Shanghai nickel futures market has dropped rapidly, hitting a new low of 111,700 yuan/ton this year. The spot price has also faced increased pressure to decline. Short - term production cuts of refined nickel have not changed the surplus situation, and with the decline in nickel sulfate price and insufficient motivation for nickel plate enterprises to switch production, the production of pure nickel in December is expected to increase month - on - month. In the long - term, the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" will gradually accumulate, and the center of nickel price will further decline. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - The price of nickel has shown a volatile downward trend, while the stainless steel market has seen marginal improvement in fundamentals but still faces challenges such as high inventory. [3][4][82] Industry News - Russia's Nornickel has doubled its forecast for nickel supply surplus this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026, expecting a surplus of 240,000 tons this year and 275,000 tons in 2026. [7] - Greenmei stated that its Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel resource project is in normal production, and the production plan for December is normal, unaffected by local social unrest. [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has simplified the regulatory rules for RKAB, reducing the number of projects from 30 to 10 to speed up project planning, exploration, and approval processes. [7] - In November, some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks may be affected by safety inspections, with an estimated impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons. [7] - In September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, consumption was 308,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 17,100 tons. From January to September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2,876,900 tons, consumption was 2,602,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 274,500 tons. [7] Market Price - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 117,900 yuan/ton and closed at 115,590 yuan/ton last week, down 1.87% week - on - week. [9] - As of December 12, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 118,200 yuan/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 120,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%, and its premium increased by 300 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,050 yuan/ton to 116,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%, and its premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton. [15] - As of December 12, the LME nickel price decreased by 350 US dollars/ton to 14,620 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 2.34%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 4.53 US dollars/ton to - 186.45 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 70.57 yuan/ton to - 926.73 yuan/ton, and the export profit and loss decreased by 52.06 US dollars/ton to - 673.37 US dollars/ton. [20] - As of December 12, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 7.5 yuan/nickel point to 889 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, an increase of 0.85%. The premium of high - nickel pig iron over electrolytic nickel increased by 28 yuan/nickel point to - 271 yuan/nickel point. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 27,490 yuan/ton, and the average price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton. The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel plate increased by 1,868.19 yuan/ton to 8,954.55 yuan/ton. [28] Supply - Nickel Ore: As of December 12, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week. The domestic arrival prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore remained unchanged at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 120,000 wet tons to 9.29 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.28%. In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 23.41% month - on - month and an increase of 10.97% year - on - year. [33][36] - Intermediate Products: As of December 12, the MHP FOB price decreased by 72 US dollars/ton to 13,001 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%, and the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 73 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP production decreased by 24,000 tons to 386,000 nickel tons, a decrease of 5.85%, and the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 70,000 tons to 292,000 tons, an increase of 31.53%. In October 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 151,300 metal tons, a decrease of 20.62% month - on - month and an increase of 26.52% year - on - year; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 28,300 metal tons, a decrease of 50.06% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.33% year - on - year. [42] - Refined Nickel: In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.13% month - on - month and 16.28% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 3.15% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a decrease of 65.66% month - on - month and 5.67% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative export volume was 150,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 55.2%; the cumulative import volume was 197,400 tons, a cumulative increase of 168.23%. As of December 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 486 tons to 35,300 tons, an increase of 1.40%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 84 tons to 253,000 tons, a decrease of 0.03%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 2,122 tons to 59,000 tons, an increase of 3.73%. [50][51] - Nickel Sulfate: In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons, an increase of 1.21%. In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 25.32% month - on - month and an increase of 114.15% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, an increase of 31.23% month - on - month and a decrease of 53.20% year - on - year. [64] - Nickel Iron: In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons, a decrease of 3.23%. The Indonesian nickel pig iron production decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons. As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons of metal content), a decrease of 18.40% month - on - month and an increase of 30.31% year - on - year. [75] - Stainless Steel: In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 20,700 tons to 3.4931 million tons, a decrease of 0.59% month - on - month and an increase of 5.26% year - on - year. The estimated crude steel production in December is 3.2258 million tons, a decrease of 7.65% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's stainless steel monthly import volume was 124,100 tons, an increase of 3.18% month - on - month and a decrease of 21.56% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 358,100 tons, a decrease of 14.43% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year. [87] Demand - The demand for nickel in traditional fields is weak, unable to boost the price. The demand for nickel sulfate has slowed down after the peak season, and the procurement volume of ternary enterprises for nickel salts has declined. The demand for stainless steel is affected by factors such as high inventory and tight corporate funds at the end of the year, which restricts the upward movement of the market. [3][4] Cost - In November 2025, the SMM average production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 170 US dollars/ton to 13,208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 216 yuan/ton and decreased by 4,667 yuan/ton respectively to 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton; the profit margins decreased by 0.5 and increased by 3.3 percentage points respectively to 9.0% and - 3.0%. [57] - In the cost of nickel sulfate production, as of December 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate increased by 1.7, 1.5, 1.8, and 1.1 percentage points respectively to 0.9%, - 0.5%, 6.1%, and - 3.1%. [68] - In the cost of nickel pig iron production, as of December 12, the cash cost of RKEF production in Fujian decreased by 14.03 yuan/nickel point to 951.13 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 2.15 percentage points to - 6.44%. [81] - In the cost of stainless steel production, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 22 yuan/ton to 12,490 yuan/ton week - on - week, an increase of 0.18%. [94] Inventory - The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased to 59,000 tons as of December 12. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55%, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,816 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2.95%. [51][90]