聚聚聚聚2025、12、17

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bullish; Cost - Neutral; Device change - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Cautiously bullish; Processing profit - Neutral [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Device change - Cautiously bullish; Import - Neutral; Downstream demand - Neutral; Supply - demand balance - Neutral; Processing profit - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: December shows balanced de - stocking. Considering some long - stopped devices won't restart, the inventory build - up pressure in January and February is not high. Demand seasonally weakens slightly, and costs have corrected significantly. With an expected good pattern, focus on low - buying opportunities after crude oil stabilizes [5]. - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. Short - term supply and demand change little, and PXN maintains a relatively high valuation. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [6]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply side has marginal improvements with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance improves, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Terminal Demand - Weaving orders are weakening. Domestic terminal orders are winding down, and foreign demand samples haven't been ordered in bulk. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 83% (- 2%), 67% (- 2%), and 70% (- 4%) respectively. Finished product inventories are rising slightly, and new order volume is weakening. There may be a pre - holiday stock - up wave before the Spring Festival in 2026, around mid - January [9] - As of December 12, polyester load is around 91.2%, with low cash flow. Polyester average inventory is about 16 days, with low inventory pressure and a slight increase. Polyester开工率 remains high, and the overall cash flow is average. Polyester as a whole has average profitability, with compressed profits for filament POY and FDY, and fair profitability for staple fiber [14][15] - As of December 11, polyester load is 91.2%. Forecasts for November and December are 91% and 91% (+1%). In the future, with low inventory pressure and a relatively late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [41] PTA - PTA device maintenance changes little. Devices are under planned maintenance with a high volume. YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, as well as Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1. The planned maintenance in January 2026 is not high. After Ineos' 1.1 million - ton restart, 1.25 million tons may be under maintenance. Watch for new material plans [47] - As of December 11, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 2.15 million tons, showing a slight decline. Before the end of the year, PTA inventory pressure is low [48] - PTA's short - term supply is tight, with little change in supply and demand. The overall pattern is expected to be good. Consider low - buying on corrections. The supply side has devices under planned maintenance with little change and high maintenance volume. The demand side has polyester load maintaining at a high of 91.2% as of December 12, but downstream orders are weakening [59] - The net short - position of foreign - controlled futures company seats in PTA changes little [60] PX - US gasoline inventories are rising from the bottom, and gasoline cracking spreads are falling from highs [71] - Asian short - process profitability has slightly improved [73] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread is 189 yuan, and the xylene price spread is $155.9. Xylene tariffs have been waived. Exports of aromatics from South Korea to the US increased slightly in October - November, and there are plans to export pure benzene to North America in December. North American aromatics inventory is expected to increase slightly at the end of the year [81] - PX device operation: Domestic load remains stable at 88.1%, and Asian load is 79.3%. Shanghai Petrochemical has slightly reduced its load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce its load in January. Overseas, GS disproportionation is shut down, Idemitsu's one line has restarted, and Saudi Satorp has restarted [83] - The overall PX pattern is expected to be good, with little short - term change in supply and demand. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The PX supply - demand is in a loose balance, with a relatively high PXN valuation around $280. It will fluctuate in the short term, and low - buying is recommended [88] - The price spread between PX's outer and inner markets has stabilized, the 3 - 5 month spread of PX has remained firm, and the TA05 processing fee is at the bottom [89] - The industrial chain profit has slightly recovered from a low level, with the valuation mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level. PTA processing fees remain low. Currently, the PTA - crude oil price spread has recovered, reflecting some positive expectations. PXN is relatively high overall. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees after the demand off - season correction [98] Ethylene Glycol - As of December 12, the overall ethylene glycol load is 69.93%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance/load reduction has increased [100] - Many ethylene glycol devices have maintenance plans. Domestic maintenance has slightly increased, and the overall load has decreased to 69.9%. The syngas - based load is 72.17%. New device Ningxia Changyi's 200,000 - ton production is ramping up [105][107] - Overseas device maintenance has increased. Shipments to China in November - December are high, estimated at 650,000 tons each month. Shipments may decline in January - February [123] - As of December 17, the ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports is about 844,000 tons, a 25,000 - ton increase from last week. Forecasts for arrivals in late December are moderately high, and port inventories are expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 13.9 days (+0.1), and downstream inventory has slightly increased [130] - Ethylene glycol's supply side has marginal improvements, with increased oil and coal device maintenance. December's balance has improved, with limited short - term downside space. However, it still faces inventory build - up pressure and will fluctuate at low levels in the short term [135]