铜：“强预期”与“弱现实”的博弈

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the copper market dated December 22, 2025 [1] - The report is titled "Copper: The Game between 'Strong Expectations' and 'Weak Reality'" [2] - The author is Cao Baoqin with investment consulting qualification number Z0012851 and email caobaoqin@nzfco.com [2] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the Shanghai copper market maintained a high - level volatile pattern. On Friday, stimulated by the unexpectedly low US inflation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again, and the copper price rebounded [2] - At the industrial level, the situation is mixed. The supply of copper ore is extremely tight, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrate in 2026 is set at $0/ton, entering the "zero - processing - fee era". High copper prices significantly suppress downstream demand, domestic social inventory accumulates, the spot of electrolytic copper turns to a discount, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises generally declines [2] - There is a rigid supply constraint due to ore shortage and a loose global liquidity macro - tone, providing strong bottom support for copper prices. However, it is currently the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness, putting pressure on copper prices. In the short term, copper prices will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2] - This week, the US Q3 GDP data and Q3 core PCE price index will be released. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it will boost the expectation of interest rate cuts and bring new upward driving force to copper prices [2] Group 3: Factors to Watch - The factors to watch are the US Q3 GDP and PCE price index, and the changes in downstream demand [3] Group 4: Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 92315 | 93500 | - 1185 | - 1.27% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 155 | - 15 | - 140 | - 933.33% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | Yuan/ton | - 940 | - 580 | - 360 | - 62.07% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 93410 | 94740 | - 1330 | - 1.40% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Ton | 160400 | 165900 | - 5500 | - 3.32% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Ton | 95805 | 89389 | 6416 | 7.18% | Weekly | [3] Group 5: Report Structure and Data Sources - The report includes sections on futures market review, supply situation analysis, demand situation analysis, and inventory situation analysis [5][11][14][20] - Data sources include Boyi Master, iFinD, Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [8][9][10]