纯碱周报：企业库存预期高位，震荡运行-20251222

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is fluctuating with prices stable but slightly decreasing. The supply has decreased slightly due to load fluctuations and maintenance of individual enterprises. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near term. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at around 1220 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has been fluctuating, and prices have been stable with a slight decline. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The comprehensive utilization rate of production capacity was 82.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. The number of days of pending orders for soda ash enterprises was more than 12 days, showing a narrow decline [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash operation rate is expected to be stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly, while that of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in the soda ash operation rate [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash operation rate; new production capacity release progress; changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with light trading, and prices were slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated and rebounded, and the basis in the East China market showed a downward trend [7] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The production of light soda ash was 33.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 39.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali method in China was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [8] Demand Situation Analysis - Photovoltaic glass: As of December 18, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity in operation was 88,680 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous week. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, while the decline in supply is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December [12]. - Float glass: As of December 18, the average operation rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. There is an expectation that a production line in South China will stop production this week, and the float glass production may slightly decrease [12] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 77.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [14] Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 785,571, an increase of 4,834, and the short - position volume was 963,332, an increase of 27,622. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [16]