PTA期货：供需维持偏紧，远端预期较好

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend. TA2605 closed at 4,882 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton or 4.85%. Short - term supply is still tight, social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the rise in PXN has also pushed up the PTA price [2]. - In the future, there are many near - term PTA overhauls. The balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than the previous expectation. In the medium - to - long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In addition, there will be many PX overhauls in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is positive [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures price increased this week. TA2605 rose by 4.85%. Short - term supply is tight due to previous overhauls, and social inventory is decreasing. The downstream polyester load remained stable, while the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continued to decline. The increase in PXN also contributed to the rise in PTA price [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA overhauls, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 4,820.00 | 4,765.00 | 55.00 | 1.15% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 141.12 | 141.12 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 83.70 | 83.80 | - 0.10 | - 0.12% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 62.90 | 63.69 | - 0.79 | - 1.24% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 335 | 281 | 54.00 | 19.22% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 4,850 | 4,687 | 163.00 | 3.48% | Daily | [4] PX - Related Analysis - The report includes the review of the PX futures and spot markets, analysis of PX supply (such as production, import volume, operating rate, and inventory), and presents relevant data through multiple graphs [6][13] PTA - Related Analysis - It covers the review of the PTA futures and spot markets, analysis of PTA supply (production, operating rate, social inventory), consumption (export, downstream product production and operating rate), and cost - profit analysis, with relevant data presented in graphs [20][22][28][36]