宏观周报（12月第3周）：11月内需弱化格局持续-20251222

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - November economic data shows a slight decline in industrial production, consistent with high base effects and seasonal characteristics[2] - Fixed asset investment saw a limited year-on-year recovery, while real estate investment decline has widened, with prices continuing to drop month-on-month[2] - Consumer retail sales have significantly slowed down, with durable goods demand growth tapering off after an initial surge[2] Group 2: Financial Market Insights - The stock market experienced a volume decline with the average trading volume at 192.6 billion CNY, reflecting a drop in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.89%[8] - Bond market yields decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points, indicating a potential short-term recovery opportunity in the market[8] - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, have contributed to a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of a potential rate cut in January[2] Group 3: International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% due to a higher labor participation rate[2] - The U.S. CPI data was significantly below expectations, raising concerns about data quality, yet inflation resilience remains a worry for the market[2] - The Japanese central bank's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, leading to a depreciation of the yen, with limited immediate liquidity contagion effects[2]