11月财政数据点评：紧平衡下关注短期支出端增量政策

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints As of now, the growth rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure is running weakly. Compared with the budget target at the beginning of the year, it shows the characteristics of "slightly exceeding the revenue target, lagging expenditure progress, and expanding revenue - expenditure gap of government - managed funds". Although the general public budget revenue has exceeded the target, the lagging expenditure progress leads to low efficiency of fiscal funds use. The expanding revenue - expenditure gap of government - managed funds reflects the fragility of land finance. In the future, under the tight fiscal balance, both the revenue and expenditure sides face multiple pressures. In the short term, the focus is on the efficiency of fund implementation. Incremental policies around accelerating fund allocation and promoting the formation of physical workload are expected, which will strongly support fiscal expenditure and economic recovery in the first quarter across the year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fiscal Revenue - The growth rate of fiscal revenue has been running at a low level and slightly exceeded the growth target at the beginning of the year. From January to November, the growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.8%, 0.1% higher than the predetermined target. The overall revenue growth continued the low - level operation trend. Structurally, the differentiation between central and local revenues increased, with the decline of central revenue expanding and the growth rate of local revenue improving slightly, providing some support for the overall revenue. In terms of rhythm, the completion progress of fiscal revenue was 91.2%, slightly lower than the historical average (91.7%) but slightly higher than the same period in 2024 (90.5%). Overall, fiscal revenue maintained a steady recovery trend, but the progress was slightly behind expectations, mainly affected by factors such as insufficient economic recovery resilience, tax structure differentiation, and weakening non - tax revenue support [2]. - The growth rate of tax revenue continued to improve, while the decline of non - tax revenue expanded, showing obvious structural differentiation. The growth rate of tax revenue increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.8%, indicating enhanced tax source resilience. Non - tax revenue had negative growth for 7 consecutive months, and the decline further expanded, dragging down the overall fiscal revenue growth rate. Among major taxes, the growth rates of domestic VAT and corporate income tax declined marginally, which was consistent with weak domestic demand and enterprise profit pressure; personal income tax remained the same as the previous value, indicating limited improvement in residents' income; consumption tax increased slightly, showing certain consumption resilience. The shock - strengthening of the equity index drove the stamp duty to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Among foreign - trade - related taxes, the decline of export tax rebates expanded, and the increase of tariffs narrowed, indicating pressure on exports. The decline of vehicle purchase tax expanded, reflecting the weakening of automobile consumption. The growth rates of land value - added tax and deed tax were continuously in the negative growth range, indicating that real - estate transactions and investments were still in the bottom - exploring stage [3]. Fiscal Expenditure - The growth rate of fiscal expenditure declined continuously, and the pressure on local expenditure was significant. From January to November, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 1.4%, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points, significantly lower than the predetermined target of 4.4% at the beginning of the year. In terms of central and local levels, the growth rate of central expenditure decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, with a continuous decline for 6 months; the growth rate of local expenditure decreased to 0.6%, the lowest in the year, reflecting a significant increase in local fiscal expenditure constraints. The decline in local expenditure was related to the high base last year on the one hand, and reflected the characteristics of marginal weakening in the second half of the year due to the front - loaded fiscal efforts on the other hand [4]. - In terms of expenditure structure, the decline of infrastructure - related expenditure expanded, and the growth rate of livelihood expenditure slowed down from a high level. The growth rates of expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban and rural community affairs both declined and reached the lowest in the year, dragging down the infrastructure investment growth rate. The obvious contraction of infrastructure expenditure might be related to insufficient connection of new project reserves and more funds being used for debt resolution. In terms of livelihood expenditure, the growth rate of social security and employment expenditure slowed down for 3 consecutive months but still remained at a relatively high level; the growth rate of education expenditure slowed down marginally for 8 consecutive months, indicating that the fiscal expenditure structure was gradually transitioning from bottom - supporting expansion to constraint balance [4]. Government - Managed Funds - The revenue and expenditure of government - managed funds were under pressure, and there was a disconnection between the issuance and use of special bonds. The decline of land transfer revenue continued to expand, dragging down the growth rate of government - managed funds revenue from - 2.8% to - 4.9% (the predetermined target was 0.7%). The growth rate of government - managed funds expenditure decreased marginally to - 15.4% (the predetermined target was 23.1%), and the growth rate slowed down for 4 consecutive months. The growth rates of government - managed funds revenue and expenditure were significantly lower than the targets at the beginning of the year by 0.7% and 23.1% respectively. The lagging expenditure progress was mainly due to the mismatch between the issuance of special bonds by local governments and project implementation. Although the issuance progress of local government special bonds reached 101.6% and the progress of new special bonds was 97% (the historical average was 95.3%), the insufficient land revenue restricted the local supporting fund expenditure ability. Coupled with the fact that some projects were not ready for timely construction, the fund expenditure progress was lagging [5].